"I Give Chavez Jr. No Chance To Win"

BY The Sweet Science ON September 15, 2012
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Chavez Jr Martinez Final PC 120912 009aThere are those that think Junior has a strength edge against Martinez, and will spring the upset. Not the writer; he thinks the kid needs more seasoning, and has no shot.

When they first announced the dueling fight cards, I saw a wonderful opportunity and sprung into action. I know a guy who knows a guy, so I made a phone call.

Me: I need you to do me a favor.

Voice: I'm listening.

Me: I'd like to bet a parlay.

Voice: I'm still listening.

Me: I want to bet that neither main event happens come September 15th.

Voice: Huh?

Me: I don't think either fight will happen on...

Voice: No, I heard you the first time.

Me: I just assumed you could get me considerable odds on both fights not happening.

That's a true story.

Here was my logic regarding Canelo vs. Lopez. Oscar walks into the offices at Golden Boy Corporate, spots Richard Schaefer, and inquires as to how the fight tickets are selling.

Oscar: Richard, how many have we moved so far?

Richard: Eh, hello, Oscar. Um... eight.

Oscar: Wow, eight thousand, not bad.

Richard: No, Oscar, eight... the number that comes right after seven.

That's it, fight cancelled, I'm halfway home.

For the second part of the parlay, I knew I'd probably have to wait until the weigh-in for Chavez Jr. vs Martinez.

Jimmy Lennon: The challenger (don't get me started), Sergio “Maravilla” Martinez weighs in at 157 ¼ pounds. Next up on the scale, WBC Middleweight Champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. weighs in at...

First Indistinctive Voice: Move the bar.

Second Indistinctive Voice: I did.

First Voice: Move it some more.

Second Voice: It won't go any farther.

Lennon (sounding perplexed): Well, what does he weigh?

First Voice: He doesn't weigh anything. I mean, he weighs something, but the scale evidently doesn't go that high.

Second Voice: Um, we don't know. He's heavier than what the scale goes up to.

Lennon (into microphone): Okay, there's going to be a brief intermission.

Keith Kizer: Julio, you have 2 hours to make weight.

Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.: Nope. I'm not losing any weight.

Keith Kizer: Sergio, Julio refuses to attempt to make weight. If you fight him, you're entitled to 45% of his purse and only you can win the title.

Sergio Martinez: What did he weigh?

Keith Kizer: Well, he was a little heavy.

Sergio: What's a little?

Keith Kizer: I'm thinking of a number between 250 and 300.

Sergio: Is that his weight, or the differential?

Keith Kizer: Sergio, really, does it matter?

Sergio: You're right, I'll take it.

Me: Nooooooooo! Don't take the fight Sergio! #$%! Why, Sergio, why?!?!

Here's my logic. I really didn't feel that Canelo could draw well against such a smaller opponent. I thought this would be similar to the Tyson fight that was cancelled when they were going head to head with the Holyfield-Bowe fight at Caesars. I just figured cooler heads would prevail at Golden Boy, but evidently not.

In regard to Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez, this is not a fight Team Chavez wants now. The Chavez camp would need a way to save face, thus Chavez not making weight would be the easy way out. If you can't make weight, you can't make weight.

I like Chavez Jr. And he is improving. And although a year ago I said that we needed to give him a year, now a year removed I find myself still saying the same thing. He's insanely overrated. Because of my understanding of match-ups, I felt Sergio was a 320 favorite over the young Chavez. So you can imagine my surprise when I read Martinez opened at -160. I thought maybe they dropped a zero.

I began to second guess myself (silly me). So then I did what I always do when I need to confirm my findings. I checked my notebook, and I came across the page entitled: Things that, by themselves, can't fight. Listed are some of the following: mean scowls, tattoos, insults to your heritage, body piercings, pink underwear, legendary dads who won 107 professional fights 17 years ago, etc. And several pages over is the page entitled: Things that can fight. Listed are some the following: fleet of foot (lateral movement), punches delivered from unorthodox angles, fighters with a chip on their shoulders the size of Argentina, etc.

In conclusion, I give Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. no chance to win. Martinez “Dempseys” Chavez, Jr. I'll just say that I saw it coming. I was very surprised that Jr. made weight. I'll be the second most surprised guy in Nevada, if he wins... right after Sergio.

Comment on this article

amayseng says:

where is my boy RADAm??/

i told ya, totally outclassed, ya jr got a knock down in round twelve, but ****, he weighed 30 lbs heavier......

total boxing lesson except the last round, sm go lazy and cocky and got caught, jr will be ok, he can still have a good future and career

Radam G says:

I'm right here! Don't cry for me, Argentina! SM was very lucky. Lady Luck blinded SOAL JCCJ from going to the torso after that knockdown. A body shot at that time may have gotten SM outta there. It was his night. And Lady Luck was his Sin City ho for the night. Hehehe! Holla!

the Roast says:

Let me swing open the doors of Mister Lee's cafe for some late night crow! First order up is for the resident in da know it all Radam G, a giant crow platter for incorrectly predicting Silver Spoon Chavez Jr to KO Sergio Martinez. The rich kid was in WAY over his head despite a substantial weight advantage. Lady Luck let Jr. avoid a shutout. Enjoy your meal RG. Second order is for the Caveman, Mister Lee. Lopez KOing Canelo?? Come on now, this is why we have weight classes. Josesito may have ruined his career tonight by electing to cash in on his above 140 upset of Evil Vic Ortiz. Very hard to jump up not one but two weight classes against a quality opponent like Alvarez. Eat up Caveman!

Radam G says:

Yup! Laaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiddddddddddd BACK!!! Sippin' on ginger ale and shark blood and eatin' crow with Holyfield 's bar-b-cue sauce on it. And got my gold on my mind, and my mind on my gold.

Deepwater told you guys to buy gold. The US dollar is weak as Sergio Martinez's chin is. Da muthasucka won it for the 99 percenters. But we one percenters and silver-spoons-in-our-grills playas will be back. Holla!

SouthPaul says:

Let me swing open the doors of Mister Lee's cafe for some late night crow! First order up is for the resident in da know it all Radam G, a giant crow platter for incorrectly predicting Silver Spoon Chavez Jr to KO Sergio Martinez. The rich kid was in WAY over his head despite a substantial weight advantage. Lady Luck let Jr. avoid a shutout. Enjoy your meal RG. Second order is for the Caveman, Mister Lee. Lopez KOing Canelo?? Come on now, this is why we have weight classes. Josesito may have ruined his career tonight by electing to cash in on his above 140 upset of Evil Vic Ortiz. Very hard to jump up not one but two weight classes against a quality opponent like Alvarez. Eat up Caveman!



I doubt he ruined his career. Just the opposite. He's enhanced it. Even in losing. Great effort. No man in his situation should ever pass up that kind of loot. Smart business move, he should be ok.

the Roast says:

SouthPaul, since Dawson came down in weight and got whupped by Ward we've been talking about the difficulties of going down in weight class. Cotto came down and got pounded by Pacman and, well, see my Quote of Note for more examples. Andre Ward recently said that when he does move up to 175 he will stay there. Ward knows whats up. What will Josesito Lopez do now? Does he fight at 147 where he beat Ortiz or does he go back down to 140 where he has fought most of his fights before? It is possible that his body will not be the same after moving up and then back down. I don't blame him for taking the fight with Canelo and getting that big payday. I just think it's going to be hard for him to get to the top again at 140 or 147.

SouthPaul says:

Not sure how it'll affect his body but he's young so maybe youth will be kind with it? Not that he's disposable or not worth keeping around but truthfully before the Ortiz win what sort of upside did the kid really have? His time came..he took it.. And it sort kinda worked out because regardless of what damage occurred.. He'll be back for another go and it'll be paying better than it ever has besides the 2 last bouts. Tough sport.. Grab the cash when you can... Worry about the rest later. Thats my advice for the ones who dont got the endorsements.. The big contracts.. The backing of the deep pockets. I know you're aware or all this.. Just talking it out. Good feed back. Thanx.

brownsugar says:

Yes and he prostituted his future for fast money and a pipe dream... he'll be demoted to gate keeper going forward.

SouthPaul says:

I think to say he prostituted his future is a bit harsh. The future is now in boxing. It's a short term career. Get it when you can. Bet the money wasn't fast enough considering he been in the fight game for more than a minute. Did you really see a long bright dominating future for him at 140? No offense to Josesito but he doesn't strike me as that kinda fighter. One punch away from missing out on a six figure payday. Broke as a joke, maybe not even a gate keeper.

puncher says:

Yup! Laaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiddddddddddd BACK!!! Sippin' on ginger ale and shark blood and eatin' crow with Holyfield 's bar-b-cue sauce on it. And got my gold on my mind, and my mind on my gold.

Deepwater told you guys to buy gold. The US dollar is weak as Sergio Martinez's chin is. Da muthasucka won it for the 99 percenters. But we one percenters and born-with-silver-spoons-in-our-grills playas will be back. Holla!


Sorry Radam G...but Jr got schooled and almost taken out a couple of times. The thing that the dude is so big that it would have taken a couple of more chops to the body. Did you see Jrs face? It looked like he was attacked by a mob. In fact if you look at the final round the only reason why Jr did not finish Sergio because he COULD NOT. Sergio fought back and also almost KO him with a right hook (look at the reply).

Sergio is much better and Jr does not stand a chance against the elite. Lets see what he does against GGG.

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