UPDATE! Mayweather-Pacquiao Still Not Being Made

BY Michael Woods ON January 06, 2014
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MayvsPac 62964So we got that clear, don’t we, that Floyd Mayweather is NOT fighting Manny Pacquiao in April, or May, or even September? I must confess here and now that I haven’t even followed the re-awakening of the embers of hope for a Money-Manny fight, which took me by surprise when they flared up following Pacman’s return to form on Nov. 23 against Brandon Rios, which coincided with a search for “next” for both men.

I guess I’d written off the possibility that the two men would ever glove up in the last year or so, assuming that for whatever reason(s), Mayweather just didn’t want to go there.

Regarding reasons, I, like you, admitted to slight bewilderment that what would be the most lucrative fight of all time couldn’t get made, and figured maybe we’d get closer to fruition once that lawsuit Pacman lodged against Floyd for heavily insinuating he used PEDs—was rendered moot by the fact that legal issue was settled in September 2012. But more impediments popped up once that beef got squashed, and I, like many of you, ceased caring so much. I say “many” of you because evidently more folks care about this “will they or won’t they and if they won’t, why don’t they?” soap opera than I assumed, judging by the recent proliferation of updates on the situation.

Mayweather voiced last week his current number one reason why he doesn’t see a Money-Manny fight being made, and it has nothing to do with the taking of a test, or the proper cutting of the purse pie. He said that as long as Bob Arum is Manny Pacquiao’s promoter, he, Floyd, won’t do a deal to fight Pacman. That in itself is nothing new, as Floyd said, right after he beat Miguel Cotto on May 5, 2012, that “Bob Arum is not going to let this fight happen. So once Manny's free from Bob Arum, will the fight happen? Absolutely."

Some theorize that Floyd holds a personal grudge against Arum, who promoted him from 1996-2006, for not building him up properly, and making him the sort of star he believes he should have been, earlier. The Michigan native hasn’t stated that a personal enmity toward Arum is fueling a stated desire to only do business with Pacman if and when he’s free of Arum, however.

(To refresh your memory, Mayweather and Arum parted ways in April 2006. "He caters more to Hispanic fighters," Mayweather had protested in a piece which ran in GQ in March 2006. "Eric Morales fought on pay per view. Oscar de la Hoya fought on pay per view. The last time he had a black fighter fighting on pay per view, he was fighting one of his Hispanic fighters. I need to be promoted in the urban areas. Now I'm a promote myself, it's going to be crazy. I think my team could have done a much better job. By this time in my career I could have made probably $100 million." Arum countered by saying, "What Floyd doesn't understand is the Hispanic market is fervent about boxing, but the urban market is much more reluctant to spend money. All the major African-American fighters we promoted since the 1970s, their fan base came not from the urban market but from white Anglos - they had mainstream appeal which Floyd lacks. He gets that chip on the shoulder attitude. He gets embittered and angry at the world. And the public doesn't accept it. It turns people off." Floyd paid Arum $750,000 to exit their deal early, and on the way out, things were bitter, with Arum insinuating that Floyd was ducking Antonio Margarito, then a welterweight titlist.)

Yep, these guys have some history, and it's wise to re-familiarize yourself with that to help understand the current state of their (lack of) relationship.

Mayweather shoved coal in the Arum stocking right before this Christmas, declaring, again, that bout, the one every damned fight fan wants, will not happen. "…the Pacquiao fight, at this particular time, will never happen, and the reason why the fight won't happen is because I will never do business with Bob Arum again in life, and Pacquiao is Bob Arum's fighter," Mayweather told FightHype.com, his favored outlet for chats.

So, you wonder, if that is the primary stumbling block, is there a chance in the near future that Pacquiao will not be under contract to promoter Arum? Nope, not in the near future, with Pacman contracted to Top Rank through the end of 2014. And after that? A lawyer for Pacquiao, Franklin Gacal, lobbied on Sunday for Arum to do the right thing for the world of boxing, and free Manny.

“History is waiting and Bob should free Manny. That would be Bob’s greatest contribution to boxing history,” Gacal said to the Asian Correspondent. OK, easy for Gacal to say, but not so easy to picture Arum emancipating Pacman, and releasing his top attraction to free agency before the term is up. I mean, is there a historical precedent for that in any field, aside from boxing? Unless Mr. Arum has an overnight thunderbolt epiphany, in which a repulsion for capitalist principles is injected into his bloodstream, we don't see this occurring.

So, you wonder where we stand today, regarding Manny-Money? Same place we stood in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Nowheresville. We took the last train, the one marked "Hope," and it left us there. We can keep hope alive, I suppose, and reset our focus to 2015, should Manny decide he wants to work with somebody other than Top Rank. Or, we can hope that people are magically imbued with the spirit of monumental resolution within them, and put aside differences and see past hurdles, and mend those fences and make the fight. Should we not be able to muster that level of faith, we can hope for something less than a monumental resolution, and instead keep fingers crossed for mere acceptable level of reduced animus, and some creative deal-making to get us to the finish line. I mean, what's to keep Pacman from parting ways with Arum publicly and then cutting the Hall of Famer dealmaker in behind the scenes, rewarding him for his skillful handling of the Pacquiao project to this point?

Readers, weigh in..should we all call a moratorium on this subject until the Pacquiao-Top Rank contract ends, or do we see a continuing hunger for this subject?

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Comment on this article

amayseng says:

My question is if it is truly Arum, then why all the PED talk and bs from the beginning???

I can understand holding a grudge against Arum, to a certain degree. However, why wasn't all the talk just

about Arum being the road block?

The Shadow says:

He got mad at Arum for cockblocking two years ago. If you recall, they tried to do business with him the first time in 2009 but the Top Rank side walked away.

That first negotiation really caused a rift.

Since then, Floyd is also mad that Arum always uses Mayweather to sell fights (which Arum feels is OK since he handled him for all those years), slanders him in the media by calling him scared, posturing as if he wants the fight when he really doesn't, and filed that silly lawsuit to use as leverage in negotiations.

And who can forget that silly countdown clock/conference call with a theme centered around Floyd without even being in contact with them?

What also pissed the Mayweather camp off is that they called out Pac prior to pac-JMM III. Once it appeared Floyd would go to jail, Arum was talking about Pac-JMM on May 5, 2012.

Once news broke that Floyd would keep his date, Floyd did everything possible to reach out to Arum. He went on Twitter, he addressed it publicly, he had GBP call TR, he met with Mike Koncz, and he even called Manny personally.

Regardless of the size of the offer, one important part of that phone call that often goes ignored is the fact Mayweather said, "tell your promoter that you only want me. Talk to your promoter and make sure you guys are on the same page."

Finally, GBP went through their mediator to get the ball rolling. In order to make any other fights, Arum also humiliated GBP by making them suck up to him in public.

While Arum initially denied it, the Top Rank ruler sent an email about his future plans for Manny, which he made clear did not include Mayweather, as he originally announced to the public prior to the third Marquez bout.

"I am sick and tired of Bob Arum twisting the truth. It's another case of 'yesterday I was lying, today I'm telling the truth,' " Schaefer said, invoking Arum's most famous quote. "The truth of the matter is that we received this afternoon an email from retired federal judge Daniel Weinstein, who has informed us that Top Rank is pursuing a rematch with Marquez and, therefore, is not interested in immediate talks for a possible Mayweather-Pacquiao fight.

http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/7235880/floyd-mayweather-jr-aide-says-manny-pacquiao-camp-even-talk-fight

The reality is -- and seeing as this fight likely breaks all kinds of records, this is hard for the casual fan to grasp -- Manny wants the fight and so does Floyd. (I have sources corroborating this first-hand on both sides -- including their head trainers.) But Bob doesn't.

[url]http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/7433886/blame-bob-arum-no-manny-pacquiao-floyd-mayweather-fight

Put in the same position, neither would you and neither would I. There is no real benefit to Arum in staging the fight unless he controls it alone.

Yeah, it would do record breaking numbers, but he doesn't control the books. He doesn't control all the revenues. Arum would make as much staging Manny fights on his own. ESPECIALLY now that he doesn't have to cut GBP in anymore.

However, he also realizes that the allure of a Mayweather fight spikes sales considerably, so he will exploit that while using the perception that Mayweather's "scared."

He's even admitted as much. He's just being shrewd.

(In fact, without the allure of a Mayweather match on the horizon, numbers dropped considerably -- 60% in his last fight, although there were other variables, as well.)

On a different occasion, finally coming clean, Arum went on the record saying that he had no desire to do business with Golden Boy or Showtime, calling Stephen Espinoza a creep in the process.

Fast forward to now, Manny has lost a couple of times, lost a little leverage, his numbers are down while he's catching cases with the IRS. On the other hand, Floyd has signed a groundbreaking deal and broken records.

The truth is, Floyd and GBP just got fed up with up with Arum's shrewd shenanigans. It's just not worth the headache for GBP anymore. Especially when he can make $30m with just about anybody.

Also keep in mind, when Arum's side had the leverage, they used that leverage to sign away Shane Mosley and JMM.

So it's not that it was a matter of excuses, not a matter of not wanting to do business with Bob from the beginning. It's all the soap opera developments that have caused this rift.

Now that GBP/Mayweather holds the cards, they just want to stick it to the old man. Can't really say I blame them.

The Shadow says:

GBP begging for Bob to work with them: [url]http://www.12rounder.com/de-la-hoya-arum-doesnt-want-to-work-with-golden-boy.html

deepwater2 says:

Some questions.First off why does lil Floyd hate Arum so much for? Did Arum rip off Floyd or help build him up? If Arum did anything illegal to Floyd then Floyd would have dragged him into court. Why did Floyd sign with Arum instead of other promoters at the time? Arum did something right with the building of Pretty Boy Floyd. Money Mayweather would never have been if he wasnt built up as Pretty Boy Floyd. not sure did Arum promote Genaro Hernandez and put together the fight for Floyds first championship? Ok now Floyd supposedly offered to wire Pac 40 million.oK. That is illegal under contract law. The shadow Al Haymon knows this so that was never a serious offer. Also with Floyd making public demands and interfering with pacs current contract,that is not good. parties to a contract are not the only ones who can be liable for a breach of the contract. If you take part in helping a party breach a contract, you can also be liable. This is called “tortuous interference with contract.” It has really been excuse after excuse the last few years with floyd. Its a sad day in boxing when the P4p boxer acts like this. Its one thing to try and get an advantage in negotiations but this is way out of line. I rather watch youtubes of Foreman vs Lyle or Hearns vs Leonard anyway

The Shadow says:

Some answers: see above.

TotoyBato says:

Floyd is still Scared.

amayseng says:

My view is if Floyd wanted the fight he would have made the fight.

simply put.

Radam G says:

Ditto TotoyBato! Money May is an arch master of optical illusions. It is he, who has ducked and dodged Da Manny. And with good cause.

Floyd wants to break the record -- 49-0-0 -- of the late, great Rocky Marciano. There is mythical curse stopping any fighter from doing that. But Da Manny is a legit curse for Lil' Floyd. His Pops's boot-legged, front-yard taught "shoulder roll" would be no match for the speed of hand and foot of Da Manny. Holla!

The Shadow says:

That shoulder roll isn't a strategy vs. a southpaw. He has like four other guards he can use just as well. You know that, Sensei.

And all that broken record talk sounds like a broken record. That humbug 49-0 record is not a pound-for-pound/universal boxing record. It's a heavyweight mark.

JCC Sr. eclipsed that "record," for one. I didn't hear any Marciano nonsense in his case.

That mark is only significant because he retired undefeated. Even if Floyd retires 50-0, yeah, he would be one win ahead of Rocky but that wouldn't mean he "broke a record."

Although the media would eat that crap up.

As far as Floyd ducking, Bob Arum put a halt to the negotiations and walked away from the compromise. I really feel sorry for Manny because he's the one who's been robbed of his place in the revenue record books.

I don't think he has a problem with blood tests, needles or any of that sh*t (although I don't know). It's just Arum throwing a monkey wrench into the whole program.

People within Manny's camp have said this -- publicly and privately. People in Floyd's camp have said this -- publicly and privately.

Beyond arrogance, I don't see how anyone objectively can blame Floyd for this. He's made the most compromises. He came out of retirement to fight Manny!

To Floyd, Arum is like that chick you wine and dine. She lets you kiss her and feel her up but she won't give it to you -- the analogous "it" being Manny, of course. She's just teasing you!

Every time you think she's about to let you hit it, she gives it up to some other swagless mofo named Joshua who don't know what to do with It.

You're frustrated because you want it real bad, but at the same time, you don't wanna seem desperate either.

Still you try. She makes you wait, promising you "NOW you're gonna get it, you bad boy!" YES! He's finally going to hit it!

He comes over, nothing happens, you're still not gettin' it.

Eventually, if you're not a sucker, you're gonna tell that ho to take a walk.

It's been nothing but a damn five-year **** tease. And that's the truth.

The Shadow says:

LOL right because those guys are real credible; a fat Youtube poster, 50 Cent, Skip Bayless, et al. HAHAHA that's hilarious.

It's easy to find spin in either direction. It's better to just stick to facts. We will see if/when it happens.

Here's some reality:

Why 50 isn't credible: [url]http://www.fighthype.com/news/article13399.html

Teddy Atlas explaining why it makes no economic sense for Arum to make it: [url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ForhY5ekQo

Bob Arum's blatant public skullduggery: [url]http://www.fighthype.com/pages/content11512.html

Them talking about health is a reference to them thinking he's on drugs. Keep in mind, Big Floyd works corners with Manny's cutman Miguel Diaz.

So just for good measure, this is what Floyd Sr. have to say now: [url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veueOkNpuek

If you guys wanna find a real threat to Mayweather, throw Rigo a bunch of whey protein powder, beef him up 10 pounds and we have a fight that would give Floyd nightmares.

Now that's a fight I think he would wouldn't like. Rigo processes just as fast, might have as good a defense AND he's a southpaw.

Or starve Andre Ward down to 160, drained and depleted so his strength advantage is neutralized. That would be an even fight, I think.

I don't see anything whatsoever in Manny's arsenal that can even remotely bother Floyd and neither does the public. So I don't understand the argument that he should be afraid of losing to a guy who got knocked out by a guy who couldn't lay a glove on him.

I hope I'm wrong, though.

amayseng says:

Stephen A Smith
Bert Sugar
Mike Wilbon
among others
all very reputable journalists

The Good Doctor says:

[QUOTE=The Shadow;42072]That shoulder roll isn't a strategy vs. a southpaw. He has like four other guards he can use just as well. You know that, Sensei.

And all that broken record talk sounds like a broken record. That humbug 49-0 record is not a pound-for-pound/universal boxing record. It's a heavyweight mark.

JCC Sr. eclipsed that "record," for one. I didn't hear any Marciano nonsense in his case.

That mark is only significant because he retired undefeated. Even if Floyd retires 50-0, yeah, he would be one win ahead of Rocky but that wouldn't mean he "broke a record."

Although the media would eat that crap up.

As far as Floyd ducking, Bob Arum put a halt to the negotiations and walked away from the compromise. I really feel sorry for Manny because he's the one who's been robbed of his place in the revenue record books.

I don't think he has a problem with blood tests, needles or any of that sh*t (although I don't know). It's just Arum throwing a monkey wrench into the whole program.

People within Manny's camp have said this -- publicly and privately. People in Floyd's camp have said this -- publicly and privately.

Beyond arrogance, I don't see how anyone objectively can blame Floyd for this. He's made the most compromises. He came out of retirement to fight Manny!

To Floyd, Arum is like that chick you wine and dine. She lets you kiss her and feel her up but she won't give it to you -- the analogous "it" being Manny, of course. She's just teasing you!

Every time you think she's about to let you hit it, she gives it up to some other swagless mofo named Joshua who don't know what to do with It.

You're frustrated because you want it real bad, but at the same time, you don't wanna seem desperate either.

Still you try. She makes you wait, promising you "NOW you're gonna get it, you bad boy!" YES! He's finally going to hit it!

He comes over, nothing happens, you're still not gettin' it.

Eventually, if you're not a sucker, you're gonna tell that ho to take a walk.

It's been nothing but a damn five-year **** tease. And that's the truth.[/QUOTE]

Before I respond, I gotta say dude when you post, you come with the fire. I like it. I agree with most of what you said but Floyd's camp does hold some blame in this and here's why:

During the second negotiation (a negotiation that Ellerbee nor Floyd will admit to but Pac's people, HBO, and even Hershman who was at Showtime during the time have confirmed) Pac agreed to the random blood testing that Floyd wanted. This is when Floyd changed the message from blood test to the 30 million up front. A shrewd publicity move up front by Floyd because by in large when it comes to boxing, the general public is pretty dumb. 30 million is big money except when you are telling Pac to take on the low end 75-25 but more than likely an 85-15 split. The 85-15 split comes from estimates of the purse being 200 million at the time. Floyd was being greedy. Pac then proposed a 40-40 with the winner take 20 and Floyd refused. I could have seen Floyd 55-45, maybe even 65-35 but anything above that is a bit much.

With that being said, this fight hasn't happened because of everybody involved. Bob Arum, Pac, Floyd, Ellerbee, GBP, Top Rank, all get some blame. I even blame us, the fervent followers of boxing. If we really wanted the fight, we should not have watched, commented, or purchased anything related to any of the above until the two of them got in the ring. Now I do realize that is some pie in the sky BS because people do not galvanize anymore, but if we did and were willing to stay galvanized, we could make some things happen.

And just for the record, I thought Floyd would eek out a win then. I think he would mash Pac now and I am not a Floyd lover or detractor.

The Shadow says:

They're reputable in their field. They're not on the beat. Mike Wilbon is a joke among boxing media. I can tell you that firsthand.

Stephen A. just said something different the other. Saw it with my own eyes earlier.

At the end of the day, these guys don't know what they're talking about. Casual fans say duck, ignorant media say duck. Like I said in the first post, I think, it's hard to grasp if you only follow it casually.

The Shadow says:

[QUOTE=The Good Doctor;42079]Before I respond, I gotta say dude when you post, you come with the fire. I like it. I agree with most of what you said but Floyd's camp does hold some blame in this and here's why:

During the second negotiation (a negotiation that Ellerbee nor Floyd will admit to but Pac's people, HBO, and even Hershman who was at Showtime during the time have confirmed) Pac agreed to the random blood testing that Floyd wanted. This is when Floyd changed the message from blood test to the 30 million up front. A shrewd publicity move up front by Floyd because by in large when it comes to boxing, the general public is pretty dumb. 30 million is big money except when you are telling Pac to take on the low end 75-25 but more than likely an 85-15 split. The 85-15 split comes from estimates of the purse being 200 million at the time. Floyd was being greedy. Pac then proposed a 40-40 with the winner take 20 and Floyd refused. I could have seen Floyd 55-45, maybe even 65-35 but anything above that is a bit much.

With that being said, this fight hasn't happened because of everybody involved. Bob Arum, Pac, Floyd, Ellerbee, GBP, Top Rank, all get some blame. I even blame us, the fervent followers of boxing. If we really wanted the fight, we should not have watched, commented, or purchased anything related to any of the above until the two of them got in the ring. Now I do realize that is some pie in the sky BS because people do not galvanize anymore, but if we did and were willing to stay galvanized, we could make some things happen.

And just for the record, I thought Floyd would eek out a win then. I think he would mash Pac now and I am not a Floyd lover or detractor.[/QUOTE]

Thanks, bro! Good response! I'm happy you brought that up!

Here's the problem with the second negotiation a lot of people don't know. It was all grandstanding and posturing.

After they walked away from the deal, they originally wanted to go head-to-head with Arum because he f'd up their money but the satellite industry wasn't having it.

And after the whole negotiation, they made it clear that the 14-day cutoff offer was OFF the table. They would ONLY accept testing up until the day of the fight.

As everyone heard, Manny's camp kept saying that they had agreed to drug testing, but would preface it with cryptic statements like "basically" and "mostly" and "for the most part."

Here's the truth.

Mike Koncz, Manny's adviser, admitted on 24/7 that they had only accepted drug testing UP UNTIL A WEEK BEFORE.

This was the proposal, along with the 50/50, which the Mayweather camp ALSO said, privately, was off the table since Mayweather sold 1.4 with Mosley while Pacquiao only did half that with Clottey.

So this proposal was brought to Ross Greenburg, not to Hershman (like you say, he was with Showtime at the time), who then supposedly passed this on to Al Haymon.

Seeing as they had said from the get-go that the whole cut-off compromise was now permanently off the table, there was no point in even entertaining negotiations with Top Rank.

This is why Top Rank may have said there were no negotiations. In reality, an outline of terms was relayed to Haymon -- hardly a full-on negotiation -- and not entertained, as the Mayweather side had already publicly, explicitly and emphatically said NO CUT-OFF FOR ANY OPPONENT.

Your second point, which is a good one also, about the split. You're right, if there's $200m in the total pot (a conservative estimate), then $40m looks like a a crappy deal. It's a 80/20 -- hardly anything you'd entertain if you were Manny, right?

To the casual follower or someone who's not particularly interested in the dynamics of PPV (and let's face it, most aren't; why would anyone be?), it definitely looks like Floyd is sticking it to Manny.

Here's why this may be a bit misleading.

Around 80 percent of the total gross comes from PPV. That's $160m. These are rough estimates, for the sake of simplicity.

Out of the total PPV pot, about 55% INSTANTLY goes to satellite providers, the network and GBP. (I've even seen instances where the 55% is deducted from the full pot but let's go with the probable scenario.)

That leaves $72m plus $40m to play with. You still have to deduct expenses, which Mayweather is responsible for, so let's take off $10m to cover undercard, insurance, marketing, press conferences etc. etc.

That leaves $102 m. Manny was offered $40m upfront -- $20m in 72 hours and the rest a short time after. Usually when you get that type of advance, you have to pay interest to your promoter.

Calculating that, you suddenly have a pretty decent 39% split -- all of which would come up front, which is unheard of.

Here's an important element to consider also: that fact that he gets the money months in advance means he could add another $5m+ if he puts it in an interest bearing account for a few months. (It's a fancy corporate finance term called NPV, which is basically centered around the principle that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because it can draw interest.)

For Mayweather to even get his $62 (61%), the PPV would have to do over 2 million buys.

Even though it likely would, it's still a helluva risk.

Moreover, Floyd would get all of his income on the back-end, months and years down the line. Floyd the promoter gambles on the fact that a) the PPV does 2.5, 2.8 or maybe even 3 million PPV buys or b) that they do around 2 million with some crazy $99.95 price tag.

Then he would probably clear much, much more than $62m. But Floyd and Floyd alone sits with that risk. Not Manny. He can ball for the six months while Floyd has to live off the Ortiz checks (LOL).

In addition -- and this is totally unsubstantiated, but something I heard -- Manny would likely have been offered a cut of PPV over a certain threshold (2.5 or something).

All in all, if you look closer, the deal -- roughly 40% -- is not as bad as initially reported. Many reporters understand basic economics but aren't too savvy with corporate finance.

Another downside to that $40m deal is that there's not much incentive for Bob Arum to support that. He only gets around $12m of that.

That $12m is about 10% of a Manny promotion he controls on his own. He makes that sh*t in gate money.

NOTE: In this breakdown, I'm not including dirty money and under-the-table money, which Radam says is massive and another reason a promoter wouldn't wanna co-promote with another. I'm going strictly by the books.

The Good Doctor says:

[QUOTE=The Shadow;42083]Thanks, bro! Good response! I'm happy you brought that up!

Here's the problem with the second negotiation a lot of people don't know. It was all grandstanding and posturing.

After they walked away from the deal, they originally wanted to go head-to-head with Arum because he f'd up their money but the satellite industry wasn't having it.

And after the whole negotiation, they made it clear that the 14-day cutoff offer was OFF the table. They would ONLY accept testing up until the day of the fight.

As everyone heard, Manny's camp kept saying that they had agreed to drug testing, but would preface it with cryptic statements like "basically" and "mostly" and "for the most part."

Here's the truth.

Mike Koncz, Manny's adviser, admitted on 24/7 that they had only accepted drug testing UP UNTIL A WEEK BEFORE.

This was the proposal, along with the 50/50, which the Mayweather camp ALSO said, privately, was off the table since Mayweather sold 1.4 with Mosley while Pacquiao only did half that with Clottey.

So this proposal was brought to Ross Greenburg, not to Hershman (like you say, he was with Showtime at the time), who then supposedly passed this on to Al Haymon.

Seeing as they had said from the get-go that the whole cut-off compromise was now permanently off the table, there was no point in even entertaining negotiations with Top Rank.

This is why Top Rank may have said there were no negotiations. In reality, an outline of terms was relayed to Haymon -- hardly a full-on negotiation -- and not entertained, as the Mayweather side had already publicly, explicitly and emphatically said NO CUT-OFF FOR ANY OPPONENT.

Your second point, which is a good one also, about the split. You're right, if there's $200m in the total pot (a conservative estimate), then $40m looks like a a crappy deal. It's a 80/20 -- hardly anything you'd entertain if you were Manny, right?

To the casual follower or someone who's not particularly interested in the dynamics of PPV (and let's face it, most aren't; why would anyone be?), it definitely looks like Floyd is sticking it to Manny.

Here's why this may be a bit misleading.

Around 80 percent of the total gross comes from PPV. That's $160m. These are rough estimates, for the sake of simplicity.

Out of the total PPV pot, about 55% INSTANTLY goes to satellite providers, the network and GBP. (I've even seen instances where the 55% is deducted from the full pot but let's go with the probable scenario.)

That leaves $72m plus $40m to play with. You still have to deduct expenses, which Mayweather is responsible for, so let's take off $10m to cover undercard, insurance, marketing, press conferences etc. etc.

That leaves $102 m. Manny was offered $40m upfront -- $20m in 72 hours and the rest a short time after. Usually when you get that type of advance, you have to pay interest to your promoter.

Calculating that, you suddenly have a pretty decent 39% split -- all of which would come up front, which is unheard of.

Here's an important element to consider also: that fact that he gets the money months in advance means he could add another $5m+ if he puts it in an interest bearing account, bonds or stocks for a few months. (It's a fancy corporate finance term called "time value of money," which is basically centered around the principle that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because it can draw interest.)

For Mayweather to even get his $62 (61%), the PPV would have to do over 2 million buys.

Even though it likely would, it's still a helluva risk.

Moreover, Floyd would get all of his income on the back-end, months and years down the line. Floyd the promoter gambles on the fact that a) the PPV does 2.5, 2.8 or maybe even 3 million PPV buys or b) that they do around 2 million with some crazy $99.95 price tag.

Then he would probably clear much, much more than $62m. But Floyd and Floyd alone sits with that risk. Not Manny. He can ball for the six months while Floyd has to live off the Ortiz checks (LOL).

In addition -- and this is totally unsubstantiated, but something I heard -- Manny would likely have been offered a cut of PPV over a certain threshold (2.5 or something).

All in all, if you look closer, the deal -- roughly 40% -- is not as bad as initially reported. Many reporters understand basic economics but aren't too savvy with corporate finance.

Another downside to that $40m deal is that there's not much incentive for Bob Arum to support that. He only gets around $12m of that.

That $12m is about 10% of a Manny promotion he controls on his own. He makes that sh*t in gate money.

NOTE: In this breakdown, I'm not including dirty money and under-the-table money, which Radam says is massive and another reason a promoter wouldn't wanna co-promote with another. I'm going strictly by the books.[/QUOTE]


I love the breakdown sir but I kind of have to say some of it is still greedy. What Floyd has to do with his money or what he is responsible for really has little to do with the split. I understand him being concerned with that but that isn't Manny, Bob's or anybody but Floyd's issue. Secondly, I have a friend that works as an chief analyst for one of the major providers of all major PPV events. A dirty little secret is that the promoters have a real good idea of what PPV viewership will be well before the fight. I don't know how they do it, but these analyst are brilliant, kinda like Vegas when setting lines. In addition he told me that if Pac and Floyd were to fight tomorrow, the charge would 99.95. Two years ago, 114.99. In each instance their estimates for viewership were 4.1 million. Taking into account that these guys know that before hand, Floyd knew that even with your break down it is nearing 70-30 maybe more. Also remember that Manny is taking a huge risk in this because the offer was "No PPV revenue" what if the fight does way better than expected? Manny is out of any extra cheese made from that.

All in all though, the true fault lies with everybody. If Floyd wanted this fight, he could have made it happen. If Manny really wanted to fight, he could have as well. Top Rank, Arum, GBP, Ellerbee, DLH, Schafer with all of their double talk contributed to this thing cratering.

deepwater2 says:

Floyd offering PAC 40 million directly to PAC is not real. It's false. It doesn't exist . Under contract it would be illegal for PAC to accept that. It is a mirage . Contracts matter. Courts will enforce it. There has been no formal negotiations . Just gamesmanship ,hubris,nonsense and hearsay. Sad day for boxing. YouTube foreman vs Lyle and you will be satisfied .

The Shadow says:

[QUOTE=deepwater2;42088]Floyd offering PAC 40 million directly to PAC is not real. It's false. It doesn't exist . Under contract it would be illegal for PAC to accept that. It is a mirage . Contracts matter. Courts will enforce it. There has been no formal negotiations . Just gamesmanship ,hubris,nonsense and hearsay. Sad day for boxing. YouTube foreman vs Lyle and you will be satisfied .[/QUOTE]

LOL you're right. It was no more a negotiation than the so-called "negotiation" in 2010. He told Manny to get Bob on the same page. Never happened.

Doc, that's an awesome hook-up you got there! And yes, the number would likely be higher. But my point is that breaking Manny's cut down in terms of percentage is kinda faulty since he's technically an expense on the balance sheet.

That forecasting technique they use is kinda theoretical and that number is indeed impressive. They base it off several indicators. What the analysts have access to is the markets and homes that buy PPV, along with demographic information etc.

Basically, the Mexican/Hispanic fan base is what carries PPV, hence why Floyd likes to fight a Mexican on a Mexican holiday.

When Manny fights, the passionate Filipino fan base comes out, plus a nice penetration rate among the casuals, which is what lead to his impressive numbers over the years.

Floyd penetrates a different market altogether that no one else does; the urban market. They are not consistent buyers but if they gravitate to someone, you got a huge draw.

Tyson captured this market (along with every other market on the planet LOL).

BTW, one smart thing Floyd does is he cultivates his PPV markets very strategically.

He makes appearances five-six days out of the week at night clubs and things of that nature. He's constantly there.

Anyway, so in essence, when doing a forecast on Floyd-Manny, you factor the Filipinos tuning in, the Hispanics tuning in -- they are fans and they would stage it on a Mexican holiday, no doubt, so they tune in -- you got black people tuning in.

Most importantly, you got a HUGE percentage of the casuals, which is a huge, but fragmented segment, which is why the projection can come out to something like 4.1 million.

So that doesn't surprise me, from a theoretical standpoint. In reality, however, the number would be less.

Schaefer has his own little home-made, yet at best pseudo-scientific, system that's a little more accurate that he uses to predict the sales around the week of the fight, using what he calls "trackers."

Still, your point is very well taken -- it would do very well and they will charge a PREMIUM. Based on the above, I think 2.8 million buys is a realistic number. At 99.95, that's $280m in PPV money. Insane.

With HD, the number probably comes closer to $300m.

Based on that information, I can certainly see your point of him being greedy. But at the same time, there has to be a little more reward for the one who assumes the risk. Manny bears no risk.

If they could somehow co-promote through GBP, then I think 60-40 would be a fair proposition.

Doc, you should ask your analyst what the predictions were for other fights so we can compare to what the actual figures were!

Does your friend also have access to the [I]real[/I] PPV buy figures? I have a source at HBO but that is hardly juicy information, nor is it verifiable LOL.

amayseng says:

At the end of that video I posted Floyd is shown flipping out about Pac saying that he himself moved up and is not walking through fighters and Pac is knocking them down, out and beating them up and Floyd accuses Pac of being on PEDS then states he will never risk his health for money to fight Pac. Either Floyd has truly convinced himself of this or it is a way out. With proper and agreed testing, which Pac has been agreeable to for at least two years ( he has been on the jim rome show and espn agreeable to this) something could have been agreed upon.

I dont care what anyone thinks they know from Floyds camp, it wont convince me, I have known guys like Floyd and if he wanted to get the fight made it would have happened. Now his story is he wont do business if Arum is involved in any way. Ok i get it, you hate Bob you feel he stole from you early in your career, well how come this was not the case from day one? why is this the case now?

Lets look at today. Who can floyd fight that would be compelling, competitive and exciting?:

Sergio, Garcia, Madaina,

Instead he is looking to fight Khan who has a glass chin and last two fights were a knockout the F out loss to Garcia and then a mediocre at best win against a washed up fighter. Why?

I respect Floyds craft and enjoy watching him when he is tested and has to step up and shine as he did against Cotto, but the Ghost fight was a ploy, (ghost coming up losing agility and foot speed) Canelo at a catchweight for a fight and title where Floyd has a belt, (making floyd look bad and not receive full props for winning that fight he would have won anyways) so why not fight the most deserving guy in Madiana or Garcia?

Floyd is 37 and can pick and choose easier fights and still people will spend 70$ to watch a non competitive fight. Therefore, that is what he is going to do. I wont buy it.

SouthPawFlo says:

Top Rank and GBP/Mayweather dont and wont do business together, the sooner people realize it the sooner we can get over it..

Next, people gotta understand its not easy negotiating a 300 Million dollar deal, and i know it has to be extra hard to do it with people you have ill feelings toward...

Lastly, i think Top Rank is running outta opponents for Manny, after Tim B & Ruslan who else is left for Manny to fight....


I think the money vs manny fight happens when they are both old and no one really cares anymore......

The Shadow says:

[QUOTE=amayseng;42091]Now his story is he wont do business if Arum is involved in any way. Ok i get it, you hate Bob you feel he stole from you early in your career, well how come this was not the case from day one? why is this the case now?

Lets look at today. Who can floyd fight that would be compelling, competitive and exciting?:

Sergio, Garcia, Madaina,

Instead he is looking to fight Khan who has a glass chin and last two fights were a knockout the F out loss to Garcia and then a mediocre at best win against a washed up fighter. Why?

I respect Floyds craft and enjoy watching him when he is tested and has to step up and shine as he did against Cotto... so why not fight the most deserving guy in Madiana or Garcia?

Floyd is 37 and can pick and choose easier fights and still people will spend 70$ to watch a non competitive fight. Therefore, that is what he is going to do. I wont buy it.[/QUOTE]

It wasn't an issue from the beginning because he put it aside because he really wanted the fight. It's the stuff that's happened since the first negotiation that makes him say that.

I don't really see who's out there except if you give Rigo some protein powder. Word out of the Garcia camp is that 1) he wants to stay at 140 and 2) he doesn't want to fight Floyd right now.

Maidana is a hard sell to me. He lost to Alexander. And he lost to Khan. Granted, the whole Robert G angle is something gullible buyers will believe but he doesn't really bring a proven, built-in PPV audience.

I'm sure they prefer having him on the undercard vs. Victor Ortiz in an explosive rematch with the winner being the frontrunner for Floyd in September.

Sergio is fighting Cotto. I'd love to see that, though.

And you're right -- if you don't want to watch it, and if you're not happy with who he chooses to fight, the best way to protest is to not buy it at all.

I just don't get how he's choosing easier fights. Every fight from 140-154 is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Radam G says:

"Lil Floyd," his pops "Joy" aka "Big Floyd," Uncles Roger and Jazzy Jeff" never wanted a bout with Da Manny. Da Manny is kryptonite to the Fam May's bootlegged, front-yard-taught "Mayweather's Shoulder Roll."

They all know it. This is why they shoot jive about Filipino Warriors' mythical "A-side Meth." Oh, YUP! We are bullet proof with that Fam May's myth. Hehehe!

Da Manny will KAYO Money May, PERIOD! And Fam May and its team of roids and PEDs users and idiots know it. A-side Meth will whup the hebejeebeez outta weak-arse Fam May jive of roids and PEDs. Hehehe! Fighters from Mayweather stable were nailed with the highest amount in their system in the history of testing. Just holla at the result of Micky Bey and J' Love. Matter of fact, the most amount of fighters were caught with "dat syet in 'em," as Pops Joy May raps, were from the stable of Mayweather's fighters.

And for thousands of years, when bullies and/or syet talkers have been frighten, they blame and lie on the nearest Jew being the reason. So certainly Fam May and Team May are scapegoating da BobFather for being the cause of no Money May-Da Manny Dance.

Just come outta da shade and call a spade a spade. Money May is frighten outta his mind of the One-man Pinoy Murder Row. Some cojones, Money May oughta GROW! Hehehe! Holla!

The Shadow says:

Niggas don't a fock about no Jews man LOL.

And Big Floyd actually learned from these OG's in Michigan. Oh yeah, I went diggin' at Tocco's, baby!

Speaking of Manny, Radam, what do you make of the dissension within the team? Is Manny sometimes too loyal for his own good?

The Shadow says:

Niggas don't a fock about no Jews man LOL.

And Big Floyd actually learned from these OG's in Michigan. Oh yeah, I went diggin' at Tocco's, baby!

Speaking of Manny, Radam, what do you make of the dissension within the team? Is Manny sometimes too loyal for his own good?

Radam G says:

There is no dissension. Just back-stabbing hanger ons doing their usual jive of getting copy from corrupted haters/scribes. Loyalty is a trait of being a Pinoy -- not stupid loyalty. So don't believe the jacked-up on A-side meth copy of those not in da know.

I'll remind you that Da Manny was not so loyal to his first American promoter Muhammad Murad Muhammad, or the first trainer -- I forget his name -- and Da Manny definitely was not too loyal to S&C coach Alex Ariza.

OOPS! I musta' fo'got! Da Manny was definitely not loyal to all those bullsyeters who were peddling that "Born Again" religious nonsensical dumbsyet to him a couple of years ago. Mommy D -- Da Manny's moms -- sent those religious cons packing and got Da Manny back to believing in the Whup-and-kill-an-@$$ version of GOD. Holla!

SouthPawFlo says:

Let's see if Top Rank & GBP does any other fights together first, the Money Vs Manny fight is not gonna happen unless the "Promotional Cold War" warms up a bit.....

amayseng says:

The Cold war is a bunch of bullshit...

time to call these promoters out.

I love this sport but these guys dont get paid unless fans pay to come to the shows or watch them on tv.

The fans need to take a stand..

but we wont, we are all junkies and we cant say no

Carmine Cas says:

Wow Shadow, you should start your own blog.

Honestly when the proposition of the fight was first conceived I was all in the "Floyd's scared of Manny" Camp through much of 2012. But the more you realize the economics behind the situation the more everyone else is culpable especially Uncle Bob. Now Floyd is doing all this posturing in the media, is he trying to rub it in Manny's face? Trying to set up a super fight in 2015? Unfortunately it is probably the former, but at the end of the day that's the fight that most people want to see.

I am starting feel as though Floyd might be scared again but economics prove me wrong. Skip Bayless, Mike Wolbon, and Stephen A Smith can only speculate so much and drum up the mainstream fan, but other than that they are not in the know. They are just "talking heads" I feel now that he would earn a dominate UD.

50 said that Floyd is not scared of anyone he just cares about what the other guy is making. Regardless greed and posturing is preventing those who truly matter, us the fans from seeing the most desired fight. One thing I must say is that I think Manny has too many chefs in his kitchen messing his cheese.

Neither TR or May want concede any control to one another and they both do not want to lose each other either...

Carmine Cas says:

But yeah it is up to us as fans, to protest. The problem is that these fighters and promoters are like politicians; they lie to us and leave us divided.

Floyd is a hypocrite, TMT fighters have been busted on PED's. Most of them suck too lol

amayseng says:

Mike Tyson has been quoted as saying Floyd is scared to lose that 0


he says that as a former champion and when he was the best on the planet it was in his heart and soul

to beat any and everybody so he himself would know and prove he is the best.


Floyd does not possess that mentality or attitude. I dont know why.


When I played baseball, I hit 2 homeruns in one game and a double off the fence and I was mad I didnt

hit the ball well enough for 3 homeruns. After the game I was out on my back porch in the dark swinging

my bat trying to be better. I wanted to be the best and would have done anything necessary to do so.

I dont see Floyd having that mentality. If he did he would have made the fight not only for himself

but to prove to everyone he was the best and shut people up.

Carmine Cas says:

"I dont see Floyd having that mentality. If he did he would have made the fight not only for himself

but to prove to everyone he was the best and shut people up.[/QUOTE]

That is very true, at the end of the day money trumps legacy, regardless if he's scared of Pacquiao or not. And boxing is a business, Floyd has been quoted saying that there might be fighters with better legacies but he'll have more in is bank account when he's retired than vice versa.

But it shouldn't solely be about money, it should be about giving people what they want and adding to your legend. Bob Arum doesn't help either though LMAO

amayseng says:

I know money is important but 4 years ago Floyd was a 33 year old with prime skills and he found a way out

of the fight. At that age and prime stage he should have been drooling over getting the fight made.


Today he is 37 and will play it safe compared to when he was prime. No way he takes that risk now unless

Pac has slowed down terribly.


Like I said though, why did he not have that mentality back then?

Where everyone is quoting notes from floyds camp I am looking inside Floyd himself and finding something

is missing.

Carmine Cas says:

I agree but there were more factors than just Floyd and Manny, and still are

SouthPawFlo says:

It's just not as easy as people are making it sound..... It's bigger than Floyd & Manny, it's millions of dollars involved and these to Multi-Million Dollar Companies don't do business together... It's about big money, and also which network is gonna handle the PPV??? We almost didn't get Tyson Vs Lennox over this same network/promotional issue.... It's bigger than just "Floyd not wanting the fight!"

Radam G says:

Sorry, SPF! But Money May is the liar and bout blocker. People on the inside know that the Money Mays and Sugar Ray Robin sons come a lot of bucks a dozen. Holla!

BFF says:

happy new year TSS Readers! glad to be back from my long vacation to see you guys wont stop cant stop mentality of the sweet science forum...

As much as i try to avoid reading any articles regarding the manny-money story, i just couldn't help it but to read this article anyways and to no surprise, got nothing new out of it, but i sill enjoyed everyones take on it. I just come to the reality or conclusion that it will never happen, and when its all said and done, the only thing you can compare the manny vs money thing as far as their careers go and which is more accomplished would be the factual numbers of 8 division champion Pacman(currently only person in history as of date) vs the 50-0 MoneyMay(if he retires without a loss). And of course the two can and always will be debatable, with the catch weights for Manny and the asterisks on Money's record will forever be, that will just be the story of it all.just IMO... Either way the story will be stirred, i think they are both pretty impressive, compelling, and intriguing depending on which of the two the future generation of the sweet science followers will prefer.

The Shadow says:

There will be no asterisk.

SouthPawFlo says:

Radam, blaming Mayweather is the easy/convenient answer, but you can't overlook the fact that its not just Mayweather and PAC Man who have to agree, it's Big Bad Bob Arum involved too, and he definitely has something to do with the negotiation, or lack there of...........

amayseng says:

Foreman vs Ali got made
Ray Leonard vs Hagler got made
Tyson vs Lewis
Donaire vs Rigo

Ray leonard didnt give Duran a Third match for ten years out of SPITE, who does that sound like?

Radam G says:

Blaming an old Jew is the norm and has been an easy/convenient [sic] answer for thousands of years. When you have COWARDS, LIARS and POSERS all over the place, blame the JEW!

Money May is playing to his crowd of haters, jinoistic crackpots and fixed-minded stereotypers. They are with Money May to the bitter end. And don't want him to take a CHANCE of getting KTFO -- which will happen -- by an ASIAN. Racist stereotyping is BIG TIME all sports by too many Americans. And they don't like their bubbles of jingoism, stereotyping superiority myth burst.

If Money May could beat Da Manny, he would step forward and knock him da fudge out years ago. PEDs-and-roids using Money May and Fam and Team are frighten syetless of myths about Asians' super power and "Filipino A-side meth." Hehehehe!

We "be walking through bullet and syet," said Uncle Roger May.

"'Em bullets be bouncin' off dey @$$es," he continued.

C'mon, man! That super jive has been passed down in the Mayweather Fam. All Mayweather relatives have been ducking Pinoys -- in the amateurs and pros -- since Pinoy Black Mestizo Rocky Lockridge KAYOed Uncle Roger May in ONE whole round.

Money May can last longer than that. He might make it to round five. And KaBOOM! Lights out! Another myth bubble BURSTED! And Money May's eye vessel BURSTED! Just as Uncle Roger May got done to him PBM Rocky L.

Muthasuckas get ticked off about a lot of my posting. But it is because they cannot stand reality of the actuality and the heat in the kitchen. Go to "Random Topics" and holla at my upcoming posts. Holla!

Radam G says:

Welcome back, BFF! I hope that you had a grand vacation. Holla!

BFF says:

thanks Radam G.

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