Most boxing observers have either seen or heard by now that Manny Pacquiao was on ESPN's show First Take last week and said that he'll let Floyd Mayweather have a 55-45 purse split advantage and he'll also agree to submit to drug testing and giving blood right up until the fight. We'll, that should do it and as it's been said here as recently as May 9th, Mayweather and Pacquiao will eventually fight. But not until Manny foolishly agrees to every single stipulation that Mayweather has made and it appears we're almost there.
For the better part of the last three years boxing fans have been going back and forth arguing over who would win if Floyd and Manny ever met in the ring. Both sides have made strong and compelling cases as to why Mayweather or Pacquiao will emerge victorious. However, in my opinion both sides have overlooked the most obvious reason as to why Mayweather has to be and will most likely go off as a nearly 2-1 favorite on the night of the fight. And that's because Floyd's one of the best and most patient manipulators in history.
It's no secret that Floyd is the most risk averse great fighter we've ever seen. He doesn't fight anybody until everything is in his favor. He knows that he's managed his career to the point to where he now must retire undefeated or he'll be remembered most for the fight he lost, regardless of who the opponent was that beat him. He knew by just sitting back and letting the fans think he fears Pacquiao, it would work to his advantage and it has.
He's strung the fight out so long that Pacquiao has run out of opponents and had to settle on fighting a fourth fight with Juan Manuel Marquez this winter, the only fighter who he's never beaten once conclusively in three tries. Assuming Pacquiao beats Marquez for argument sake, Manny will sometime in the not to distant future fight Mayweather and will probably have agreed to a 42% purse split along with agreeing to be woken up at midnight the night before the fight and submit to one last drug test.
The fact of the matter is, Pacquiao shouldn't have to submit himself to any special type of drug testing than what he's done for his past fights. There's never been a hint that Pacquiao has used any type of steroid or HGH in the past nor has he ever failed a drug test before or after any fight of his career. But Mayweather has manipulated the conversation so much so that the fighter who couldn't put a mark on Marquez in their last fight is too dangerous for Mayweather and must prove to Floyd that he's clean and drug free. What a joke!
So to all you guys who were debating for the last three years who and why either Mayweather or Pacquiao would win if they ever fought, you missed it. It's been obvious for years that Mayweather was never gonna fight Pacquiao until he started to show signs that he's surely on the decline and also agreed to jump through hoops agreeing to whatever conditions Mayweather insisted on him to make the fight.
In other words the fight was never gonna happen until Mayweather felt it was safe. And don't misconstrue that as me saying Floyd feared fighting Manny because I don't believe that. What I believe is Mayweather won't get in the ring with Pacquiao until he is beyond a doubt in his mind and heart that victory is certain for him. And he knew the Pacquiao fight would be there for him whenever he wanted it and that's why he could play that game and wait Manny out.
Well, that time has come.
As of this writing Pacquiao hasn't looked good in his last three fights and is surely not the fighter he was in 2010. His stamina has waned, he punches less and he's easier to hit and time with leads and counters. He reacts to getting hit with a little more trepidation now and is showing signs that he's tired of the demands that it takes to stay on top as a great fighter. On the other hand Mayweather has never looked bigger and stronger. And don't hand me the malarkey that he uses his legs less now. He moves less because he's smarter and more economical with his movement. In other words its by design and choice, not necessity.
The later the fight takes place between Mayweather and Pacquiao, it favors Mayweather more despite the fact that he is technically the older fighter. In reality Floyd has much more left on his odometer than Pacquiao does on his both physically and emotionally. Add to that Pacquiao will have agreed to Mayweather's foolish and over zealous demands in order to make the fight a reality.
So in essence game over.
For the last two plus years it's been said in this space that Mayweather would beat Pacquiao when they fought. Granted, I've always felt he was too big for Pacquiao and held the style advantage. But my choice of Mayweather goes way beyond styles and strategies. See, I always believed wholeheartedly that when Floyd and Manny finally fought, it would only be because Manny was slipping and was so worn out by the prospect of the fight hanging over him, that he'd finally cave in and like a fool give into Mayweather's BS and demands. In a way I sense that Manny just wants to get the fight over with so he can move onto the next phase of his life. It's easy to deduce that Manny's tired of chasing Floyd all over the globe to make the fight.
Yes, Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao are going to eventually meet. And it'll come at a time when defeating Pacquiao isn't the feat it was considered a few years ago. But Mayweather doesn't care and will spin it that because he beat Pacquiao, he should rank as the greatest pound for pound boxer in history. Which is ridiculous, but that doesn't matter, he'll still scream it to everyone he comes in contact with. But to those who know, it's a hollow claim.
One more time. Mayweather will definitely beat Pacquiao when they fight, and that's more so because he waited for Pacquiao to slip as a fighter before he fought him more than anything else. That's why I've always maintained Mayweather would win the over-hyped fight between him and Pacquiao.
Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com
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