PREDICTION PAGE: Who Do Ya Like, Hopkins or Dawson?

BY Michael Woods ON October 11, 2011

HopkinsMediaDay4Dawson_Londres25Looks to me like possibly a majority of fight fans aren't expecting all that much from the Saturday clash between the ageless master of pugilism Bernard Hopkins and proficient but un-charismatic Chad Dawson.

I'm hearing a ton of people picking Dawson to win by decision and many of those same folks are feeling like "Bad" Chad will be fighting in a smart fashion, not taking any risks, trying to win through volume and movement. Me, I decided after the first Pascal fight that I wouldn't pick against Hopkins, the 46 year old walking counterpunch to the inevitability of aging. As always, I will root for a fan-friendly fight, one that gives consumers a good bang for the buck, especially since this fight unfolds on a PPV basis.

Hopkins himself isn't sure what tone the tussle will take.

"It could be a technical fight and it could be a non-technical fight," he said on a conference call, "but I think it all depends on the person. And if the person is coming to fight and he's coming to fight, then that would help me a whole lot. So it all depends. I mean, a fight happens and it changes as the fight goes. And you never know. But I know what I'm coming here to do, Bernard. I'm coming in to make the fight and it takes two to dance. It takes two to fight."

It also takes two to promote. I saw a Tweet from Hopkins on Monday night which indicated that he isn't pleased with how the event is being promoted. "The Great @therealbhop is fighting Chad Dawson in 6 days & the promotion for this event is very lackluster" @hboboxing @GoldenBoyBoxing."

I found that admission interesting, as I've been wondering if and when Hopkins would blow his top at Dawson's lack of talent at the promotional end of the game. Listen, the kid is what he is in the personality department. He's a mellow cat,  and he just doesn't have it in him to manufacture drama, or fake being furious, or use incendiary language. And that's OK. But it would be more OK if his in-the-ring style promised more fireworks. It doesn't. He's a technician in there, a skilled pugilist who doesn't have more than an ounce of shark blood in him. So Hopkins has essentially been a one man show promoting this scrap and it's looking like the ticket sales at Staples Center, and perhaps PPV buy rates, will not be meaty. Hopkins will get over $2 million guaranteed, I hear, but that might be all he gets, if the revenue doesn't surpass HBO's break-even point.

Business side of the bout aside, it strikes me that Hopkins might not be getting the due he deserves for taking on an in-his-prime Dawson. Who among us would make a stink if Bernard, who turns 47 in January, cherrypicked one or two foes a year, and avoided the young guns? But no, he's choosing to embrace an opponent who many pundits are seeing as the favorite. Perhaps we should all take more heed when Hopkins warns us that he won't be around forever.  "I'm not going to be fighting 'til I'm 50 years old. I don't have to and it won't be a good health risk for me to-it would be a bad risk for me to even do that. But I'm going to enjoy while I can. I'll be 47 in less than four months, and as of October 15th ... next that's meaningful and whether I'm motivated or not, but right now I'm just going to let the world know that 46 is a great number for Bernard Hopkins and I got a show that next Saturday. I'm enjoying the moment while I'm here and I'm going to continue to stack the pages as the pages become interesting, they become meaningful. And I think everybody should just enjoy me while I'm here, because nothing lasts forever and I think we all know that."

TSS Universe, please offer your prediction on the Hopkins-Dawson clash. Who will win, and how?

Comment on this article

Radam G says:

Like always, I don't pick, but I do tell what is most likely to happen, then all the haters and faders say that I picked so-and-so. Whatever! Dig my SPIT, BABBBEEEEE!

Bad Chad Dawson is going to go back to shoulder rolling and fighting at about 5-foot-6 instead of using his whole 6-foot-2 frame. B-Hop is going to be all up in BCD's grill. B-Hop is gonna be gettin' BCD outta his game by sneaking in head butts, stepping on his toes, kneeing his knees, smacking him in the testes from the opposite side of the ref's view, while callin' him bytch names and putting down the way he New Jack fights.

BCD is gonna be in a fudging nightmare. Da Executioner is gonna put the hebejeebees on him. Who will win this bout? AIn't pickin!' But expect for all da chump-time haters and big-time faders and long-term fakers to say that I picked B-Hop! TSS Reader Ali if the shoe fits, steal it. Hehehehe! Holla!

BoxAnne says:

Chad Dawson is as chickenhearted as he is skilled, that is, very. B'Hop has equal or almost equal skills, and the heart of a lion. Age will have little to do with it, heart and durablility will, imo.

ali says:

Im 99.9% sure Dawson wins this fight....RADAM man UP!!! and make a damn pick..r u scared of being wrong everybody knows your going with B-Hop grow some nuts and just say've been wrong plenty of times in the pass before so its nothing to be embarrassed of lil homie.

Radam G says:

Wow! Ali, da big homey, is so FULL of _____! Doctor! Doctor! Maybe da big cat needs some peepee. He ain't nuffin' like da GOAT Ali. Where is da honesty? But it's all good. Ali Baba misses his 40 idiots from the old TSS Universe, and his 40 theives from their cesspool -- I mean cave. Open CESS-SO-ME! Ali, BIG Dawg, find an old, rottening tree and get on yo' peepee! Or maybe just go and steal sumptin!' Hehehehehe! Holla!

Radam G says:

BoxAnne is back in Hizouse! Watch it, GIRL! Da nutcases are convinced that you and I are the same. Holla!

FighterforJC says:

It takes more expertise to make an analysis than to pick a winner, which is a 50-50 ordeal. I don't know enough about Chad Dawson to make a real analysis but I feel that he's too athletic and has the size and speed to to make Hopkins have to come to him, or at least be able to get off first on his own terms rather than Hopkins'. People seem to forget how close the Pascal fight was last time and that with a little more savvy, Pascal could've beaten Hopkins by securing a couple of rounds that could've gone either way. It wasn't as if Hopkins dominated Pascal easily. Dawson has good mobility and upper body flexibility, two things that neither Pascal, Pavlik nor Tarver had. And as I've said numerous times, Hopkins avoided Chad Dawson for a long time but jumped on the opportunity to fight Pascal. Hopkins knows better than anyone that Dawson is a bad matchup for him. You can read between the lines when he says things like, "if he comes to fight." He's already laying out his excuse in the event that Dawson chooses to "not fight," but rather wins by an easy UD. I won't rule out a TKO win for Dawson, either.

Real Talk says:

I rolling with B-Hop till the wheel fall off, til my legs give out. Aye this aint a sentemental pick either. Dawson has skills and is pure boxer but that alone won't cut it. I got him trying to overwhelm the ageless one with youth, that alone won't cut it, I got him trying to use the jab and his reach and control the distance, that alone won't cut it. Chad will have to gut it to cut it. We don't know if Chad was sandbagging or if it's something not clicking upstairs or major distractions, meds, whatever. One thing I do know is he doesn't seem to put it all together which is puzzling, another thing is he won't rollover B-Hop like he did Tarver. B-Hop has to many tools, intangables and can crack at this weight. He had Pascal hurt a couple times but just didn't get the KO, it was there though but Pascal is a wild clubber so it was what it was. Radam G see's what I see but left a couple things out in the Old Gun's arsenal. Hopkins got Defense an when he stays in his lane and his game is a hard one to tame. This will be a collision of two technician which one execute the fight plan to precision? Guess we got to wait, look and listen, don't sleep and think the champs right for the picking. Father time gave'em a lickin but his clock is still tickin I'm taking B-Hop by TKO or split decision. I'm I crazy or a genious or man with a vision on the 15th class is in session an I for one will be sittin watching Chad get a lesson from a man on a mission. Dueces

Radam G says:

Righteous TALK from Real Talk, yall heard! And ya' bettah recognize! Holla!

Real Talk says:

Big Ups To the Royal Radam G!!!!! Hopkins gonna have Chad in dep Kimchee. I'm taking sprays of the Royal Velvet an ancient Asian Method of all natural supplement an it has the Dude Real Talk feeling good. Hopkins will again shake up n shock the world and show the masses the magnificent sweet science at it's finest, Old School tools from the Master that's timeless. The Old Grand master boxer B-Hopper will jumping out of the rocker to break the student off proper with the fundementals to Molly whopper the grasshopper right in the choppers...BADACKA!!!!! B-Hop will get the W for the birthday of my fallen soldiers Nay Nay who was my big brother in the street jungle and my homie Tay Tay on the other side both who's B-Day is on the same day. Dueces

the Roast says:

This will be a close one. 115-113 for the winner....B-Hop!

FighterforJC says:

Unless Dawson has the nervous breakdown Hopkins is so desperately hoping he would have, I don't see how Hopkins could possibly win this one. The fighters that Hopkins has looked his best against were plodding, one-dimensional fighters (Trinidad, Tarver and Pavlik). Hopkins' worst performances have been against fighters whose feet were not bolted to the canvas and let their hands go (Taylor, Calzaghe). Dawson belongs to the latter group plus he's taller than Hopkins. And people on here keep ignoring the fact that Hopkins ducked Dawson for two years.

Radam G says:

Nice, RIGHTEOUS spittin,' RT. Holla!

mortcola says:

Hopkins will get into Dawson's head and will f--k with his rhythm in all kinds of ways. He is the mentally stronger, more adaptible fighter. But there is a very good chance that Dawson will simply win on volume, the way Taylor did - and Dawson is a much more precise and intelligent fighter than Taylor. Dawson is also a more technically sound fighter than Pascal, less likely to have his balance and punch output shut down. But if Hopkins can sneak nasty counters in and make Dawson gun shy, and make him hold back his hands because of B-Hop's unpredictability, B-Hop can win this one.

Radam G says:

Bad Chad Dawson has all the talent around, but he is a mental weakling with a nobody-tell-me-syet tude. He doesn't like constructive criticizism. He cannot handle bullying fighters. He folded against Pascal. Pascal got into his head. And you can bet that B-Hop will get that edge. Not only will B-hop psychologically and emotionally get into BCD's head, he will head butt him, pop him in the nuts and hit him with elbows behind hooks. BCD will indeed have a latent mental breakdown episode. Dude is going to a mental wreck and will not be putting out many punches.

Mark my words, he will look to the referee for help and will instruct trainer John Scully to complain to the referee on his behalf. BCD head will not be into fighting, but into regulating. And that doesn't play what any boxer. It is a pugilist's job to fight and suck up any unfairness taking place and to FIGHT. Referees don't tell fighters how to fight, so they don't appreciate fighters tell them how to referee. BCD doesn't not have the mental cojones to just fight and not fudge with da ref.

Da old boxing master B-Hop is going to have BCD into one bad nightmare in this O month of trick or treat. B-Hop will be giving BCD a lot of tricks, but no treats. Holla!

brownsugar says:

We have waited for this fight for so long,...So Long,....... and now it's finally here... Would have been better if Hopkins fought him several years ago... Now the beating will seem that much more inhumane.. Somehow thru conventional wisdom...Dawson has been diagnosed as suffering from "Limited Focus Syndrome",... or Boxings version of "A.D.D.". He's been accused by the media of daydreaming his way thru fights and not really having a "Fighters" heart... it's even been rumored that he may possibly need a shrink....... Well I guarantee you that Dawson won't need a high- dose Ritalin tab to tear Bhop a new one...and he won't need Dr Phil in his corner to remind him he's in a fight. Why do you think B-hop picked him??... Bhop is ready to go out with is boots the soldier he's always been. ... what better way to pass the torch to his successor???... Hate to bet against ya Real Talk... but your guy's goin down.

brownsugar says:

And I guarantee you that Dawson will find his heart for this fight........quicker than the Lion did,....... in the Wizard of OZ!

FighterforJC says:

@brownsugar: I don't think Hopkins picked Dawson to "pass on the torch." I don't think Hopkins picked him at all. I think that he just got blinded by the prospect of becoming the oldest champ in history and agreed to whatever terms were thrown at him to secure a title shot that he did NOT deserve.

brownsugar says:

Interesting F4JC,......I don't mean "pass the torch" as if Bhop's looking for a soft, warm, shady patch to lay down and die like a an old pitt bull.. And maybe you're partly right about the picking part since Dawson had to accept step aside money while giving up his place in line. His prize being either Pascal or Bhop. But who didn't deserve a title shot? could you be talking about Hopkins? Whats' your reasoning on that?

the Roast says:

This will be an interesting chess match but will anyone see it? PPV? Good HBO or Showtime main event but PPV? No way.

FighterforJC says:

Interesting F4JC,......I don't mean "pass the torch" as if Bhop's looking for a soft, warm, shady patch to lay down and die like a an old pitt bull.. And maybe you're partly right about the picking part since Dawson had to accept step aside money while giving up his place in line. His prize being either Pascal or Bhop. But who didn't deserve a title shot? could you be talking about Hopkins? Whats' your reasoning on that?

Hopkins got his title shot with Pascal based on his celebrity. Who were his last fights? RJJ? Ordenas? There are up and coming light heavies out there looking to get a their break. And don't ask me who because I don't know ANY light heavyweights out there. But still. There's gotta be someone, right? All I know is, Bhop wasn't even in line for a title shot.

DaveB says:

I know it is hard to pick against Hopkins and a lot of people will not. If he can win this fight I'll never pick against him again, but I'm not there yet. I'm almost a believer but not quite. I've always said that Hopkins needs the right type of opponent to win. The only reason Hopkins took this fight was because it would be very hard to avoid and now he will benefit financially. Believe me, he really doesn't want this fight. He has always jumped to called out other fighters but not this guy. Now that he is in it, he has to do everything he can to win. If Dawson can do what he normally does he will win. If Dawson can throw 40 to 50 punches per round and not get drawn down into throwing 30 punches per round he wins. Hopkins gets into people's heads and that is where his greatest chance lies. The mental aspect of Dawson worries me the most. I know that Hopkins is a cagey fighter, he sets traps that draw people in so that he can set up punches or counters, he is tactically very good, a defensive genius that will not get knocked out, he knows how to play the refs, is a very good actor, when he is hurt people don't know it, and he will never get blown out of a fight. Do to his fighting and non-fighting abilities he will make a case for why he won this fight. His followers will agree with him tomorrow. I believe they will both be wrong. If in fact they are right then I will become a believer. Right now I believe Dawson will win by UD.

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