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Thread: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

  1. #21
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    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Quote Originally Posted by The Shadow View Post
    Sorry, Suge, didn't mean to come across that way, man! You know I love you, brother! Lol

    Perhaps I did a poor job of expressing what I meant. Perhaps my utter disregard for Cotto's chances made it sound worse than I meant it and for that I apologize.

    Forgive me, my heart is in the right place. I'll give it a second shot...

    Yes, Cotto has earned everything he's gotten. He's not a ducker or anything, he's a true prizefighter. He has fought the best, no doubt. And I'm rooting for him.

    And yes he has earned the right to be the #boss. I totally agree.

    All I'm saying is the adulation he gets relative to what others do not is quite gross, which isn't his fault. (Had this been Ward or Mayweather challenging him at this stage, they'd get butchered for (cherry) picking on an invalid.)

    This is a blockbuster fight carefully engineered by his all star team -- just the way it should be.

    Bobcat, it is actually as you said: a calculated risk with tremendous upside. Had he fought Canelo, he'd be done if he lost and essentially sold his career for $10m. They did the right thing.

    @Grimm, the whole "no-complaining" thing is another thing he gets passes for while others catch flack. Versus Mayweather, he sprinted out of the ring, skipped the post-fight presser and ran to his king size suite at the MGM.

    He said, "oh, my head hurts, I can't make the press conference! I'm going to the ER." He didn't go to no ER, he sat in his room chillin'. Lot of people didn't like that.

    I know so because I was there! In fact, I remember my post-fight story angle covering Cotto's anger with the scorecards.

    His very next fight, he did the very same thing -- jolted for the exit in rage. What's funny is he lost both fights convincingly.

    But hey, he's a proud man, I can understand if you don't want to talk after losing so I don't hold that against him. Give me a good loser and I'll show you a loser.

    Yet, JMM gets called a whiner, Broner gets called worse and so does Bernard. I just wish people would be consistent.

    All that aside, I'm rooting for Cotto. I hope that clears up where I'm coming from somewhat?
    Alright then,... I think I'll be OK Lol....
    but if it weren't for Floyd and Pac, Cotto would have been the elite P4P fighter of his time.
    He just happened to be born in the wrong era.
    I've been watching Cotto for so long he seems like family.
    Mr "I just fight for the company" Cotto is arguably number 3 or 4 after Pac, Floyd, and perhaps equal to
    Shane (at 147)
    I can understand why you feel the way you do, but Cotto is like "one of US" where I'm from. We'll see where he shakes out at the HOF in ten years or so.
    and yes, after I'm done being the devils advocate, I expect a Martinez win also... unless he falls to pieces in the ring.

  2. #22

    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Man, I actually give Cotto props for taking this.

    If Martinez is as ready as he says he is then it could be a tough night.

    That said, Cotto has a pretty good static defence, so if he holds that tight and fires down the pipe; some of it will find its target.

    Should be a good fight.

  3. #23
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    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Great posts from everyone

    And you can look at the this fight from different perspectives.

    Cotto blew out a fringe contender in Delvin Rodriguez and Martinez struggled to Victory against Martin Murray.

    Cotto definitely looked refreshed with Freddie Roach and Martinez looked old.

    However Martinez came into his last fight injured and should have pulled out but did not want disappoint the 50,000 Argentines who came to see him fight. And as stated before he re injured that left hand during the Murray fight. In addition the slippery ring did not compliment his style. Hopefully Sergio is fully healed now as he is and he's in shape because he'll need to be.

    Cotto has fought everyone, he's had some tough losses. He's been around the block and is the A-side fighter but he's flexing his muscle promotional muscles just a little too hard. I love the 159 lb catchweight though LOL. Why not 156 or 155? Martinez has weighed in at 156 157 158, as Uncle Bob said "it's a power trip".

    But from a managerial standpoint, Cotto has been steered well except in the Pacquiao and Trout fights; bad stylistically and Cotto was drained in the former. B-Sug I dare say the result of a potential Cotto-Pacquiao II could be different if Cotto is able to rehydrate completely this time around. He's the 3rd biggest draw in boxing, Gaby P is doing something right.

    Martinez is a calculated risk that yields high rewards, especially now that Sergio vows to retire Miguel lol. I think one of Cotto's biggest flaws is his gas tank, where as Martinez wins fights by outlasting his opponents and stopping them in some cases.

    There are so many factors going into this fight, and if Martinez wins; hopefully he receives the recognition he deserves.

    I can't wait!

    By the way Cotto means cooked in Italian....

  4. #24

    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmine Cas View Post
    Great posts from everyone

    And you can look at the this fight from different perspectives.

    Cotto blew out a fringe contender in Delvin Rodriguez and Martinez struggled to Victory against Martin Murray.

    Cotto definitely looked refreshed with Freddie Roach and Martinez looked old.

    However Martinez came into his last fight injured and should have pulled out but did not want disappoint the 50,000 Argentines who came to see him fight. And as stated before he re injured that left hand during the Murray fight. In addition the slippery ring did not compliment his style. Hopefully Sergio is fully healed now as he is and he's in shape because he'll need to be.

    Cotto has fought everyone, he's had some tough losses. He's been around the block and is the A-side fighter but he's flexing his muscle promotional muscles just a little too hard. I love the 159 lb catchweight though LOL. Why not 156 or 155? Martinez has weighed in at 156 157 158, as Uncle Bob said "it's a power trip".

    But from a managerial standpoint, Cotto has been steered well except in the Pacquiao and Trout fights; bad stylistically and Cotto was drained in the former. B-Sug I dare say the result of a potential Cotto-Pacquiao II could be different if Cotto is able to rehydrate completely this time around. He's the 3rd biggest draw in boxing, Gaby P is doing something right.

    Martinez is a calculated risk that yields high rewards, especially now that Sergio vows to retire Miguel lol. I think one of Cotto's biggest flaws is his gas tank, where as Martinez wins fights by outlasting his opponents and stopping them in some cases.

    There are so many factors going into this fight, and if Martinez wins; hopefully he receives the recognition he deserves.

    I can't wait!

    By the way Cotto means cooked in Italian....

    Would you not agree though that the risk in this is just as high, if not higher than the reward? If he loses and loses badly, which I think is very possible, he could lose an 8 figure payday with Canelo or maybe even Chavez Jr. He also could lose his marketability as the A-side fighter as you stated. In addition, if this one gets ugly, I think he loses his career.

  5. #25

    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    This post is below
    Last edited by stormcentre; 05-17-2014 at 01:29 AM.

  6. #26

    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Actually, still talking about how Cotto will perform, if you have a look at how Martinez did against Pavlik there is a good case there for Cotto.



    Martinez fought an ugly, running and very wreckless fight against Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik in my opinion.

    It really revealed how Martinez is often off balance and can't, usually, throw more than 2 or 3 (at most) punch combinations - due to his (stupidly in my opinion) low hands.

    (Digression; I just think he poses a little too much and would like to see B-Hop sort him out by walking him into a few of those lovely right hand leads of the back foot/toes - which was always one of my favorite personal punches too).

    The Pavlik fight also revealed how vulnerable Martinez is to a fast and/or well timed counter puncher.

    I am sure Cotto fits the latter “well timed counter puncher” description - but not so sure about the former “fast counter puncher”.

    Anyway, weight aside, a prime and late model Cotto may have KO’d Martinez then (if Cotto were Pavlik) - as Martinez was very sloppy and had an awful LOT of defensive lapses in that fight.

    Martinez’ movement gave (a non-prime) Pavlik real problems, and as such it probably will Cotto too.

    But Pavlik didn’t go to the body much in that fight against Martinez either. Furthermore, Pavlik was also desperately looking like he needed a beer, and there were also times throughout the fight - as Pavlik sat on his stool - where he tried to get his trainer Jack Lowe (is it??) to call the fight off and his trainer refused.

    Given that was the state of Pavlik’s confidence and inner mind as he fought Martinez, and that (don’t let the blood on Pavlik’s face fool you; check Pavlik’s face out at the post fight interview in the ring - he wasn’t that busted up - more his corner couldn’t stop 2 cuts so it looked really bad) Martinez still didn’t really dominate or stop Pavlik that much; it’s food for thought in my opinion.

    Particularly when you see how lost Martinez was in the middle rounds when Pavlik started to undo and get to him.

    Cotto, unlike Pavlik, and particularly with Roach in his corner, will definitely (at least try to) go to the body.

    That’s, provided Cotto can solve Martinez’ movement; which will be very hard in the early rounds.

    The big question - or one of them is - is Delvin Rodriguez a good enough example of where Cotto is right now? And is he good preparation for Martinez; who seems pretty much ready for this fight?

    Personally, I think we all know the answer to that question and it lies not only in how long Rodriguez lasted - but at what point in the fight with Cotto you could tell he was beat.

    For me it was the look on his face when he climbed through the ropes. If not, the early stages of round 1 were also a giveaway too.

    Don’t want to be mean, but he was never coming to win in my view. I know Rodriguez had won by TKO twice in a row before he fought Cotto; but those guys and fights are an entirely different league and level to fighting Cotto.

    Rodriguez had never been there before.

    Let’s look at what beats and/or troubles Cotto.

    It’s not hard. In fact it’s simple - especially behind my keyboard here typing - compared to actually doing it. 

    What you have to do - or one of the things - is take away his power.

    Cotto is not really or necessarily a volume puncher, and he doesn’t care too much for the types of points that are accumulated by judges objectively.

    He likes to dominate and pressure, and he will fight dirty too. Cotto subjectively wins the rounds that are not noticeably 10-8 by simply hitting harder, sometimes more often and by creating enough pressure so that the judges can see the other guy is doing more of what Cotto wants than what he wants.

    I don’t meant to belittle Cotto, as he is a brilliant and successful practitioner of the game, but that approach to winning rounds is pretty common for a puncher-boxer, particularly a Puerto Rican fighter.

    I said Cotto can be dirty and I meant it.

    Just, for but one example, let’s take a look at how/when Zab Judah walked him into - what is probably one of Zab’s most clever, powerful and clandestine punches; particularly when he sets it up properly - a beautiful sneaky short left cross in their fight - that literally blew Cotto’s mind so much that he obviously hit Zab Judah low as Cotto was concerned about what may happen if Judah followed up and used his speed and southpaw advantages.

    If you look at the Cotto V Judah fight, you will know what I mean with Cotto going low and also the beautiful sneaky short left cross Zab Judah threw in their fight in, in think, 2006 or 2007 at the MSG in New York - as I was there for that one.

    It was the fight Cotto had before Shane Mosely (which by the way I think should have either been a draw or a win for Shane; but that’s another story).

    Anyway, the way Zab throws that sneaky, stealth, little, compact, short, left-cross, and the way he threw it in the Cotto V Judah fight is quite neat.

    Judah’s left hand is usually hidden from his opponent’s view behind the right shoulder (roll), and cocked as such. Zab sometimes throws it from an overall presentation that looks as if he is retreating, worried and/or thinking defensively; when in fact he’s foxing and ready to unload as soon as his opponent walks into range and onto the shot.

    If it were not for the lack of belief in himself, his power and his own chin at marquee level championship boxing this punch would probably have resulted in a one punch KO for Zab Judah multiple times now.

    However, due to the fact that, for Zab, by the time the punch hits the target - or perhaps even before - rather than continuing and punching through his opponent with spite - like say 3G would. Zab’s mind and feet are instead already running, as the termites of consequence in his mind start to scatter with the thought of an incoming counter punch - should what he himself deliver not have the desired effect.

    Such is the combined effect of self doubt mixed with the pride that will not let you stop professional prize fighting.

    The result is that Zab’s offensive strategy - no matter how technically brilliant - is sometimes prematurely terminated and diluted with the thought of defence and no doubt what happened in 2001 when he fought Kostya Tszyu.

    Nonetheless, the punch and the way Zab executes it - aside from all the deficiencies associated with how Zab doesn’t capitalize on it and follow through - is probably the best stealthy, short-range, leading cross (it’s a stance agnostic term; as the term could apply to a right cross lead if Zab were of an orthodox stance) punch out there.

    Anyway, I digressed into a little analysis on Zab’s sneaky short leading left cross, and I did that to show how/where Cotto will deliberately go low; particularly if he is hurt.

    OK, back to looking at what beats and/or troubles Cotto.

    Of course speed and movement do, but really you need to take away his power to alter his game-plan.

    It can be done.

    Heaps of experienced boxers know that KO artists and/or power punchers can be really neutralized by taking away their power. I used to love doing it in the amateurs (where you have less control over whom your opponent is). As most power boxers reliant on and/or used to delivering their power, that suddenly find themselves in a position where they can’t effectively deliver, are usually lost when they find it out.

    Particularly if they find it out at the very same time as they’re getting shown how they also have some defensive lapses too.

    I won’t get into how taking away a guy’s power is done, as most of the experienced posters, readers and writers here will already know . .. . you . . close the distance so their arms aren’t fully extended (defeats their power and increases the opportunity to time them safely), keep them moving, twisting and resetting etc . .

    And of course once you do that to Cotto he will then think more of the objective points.

    Not just because he knows that without effective and continual power delivery he can't control you - but also because Miguel Cotto knows he’s not a fast fighter who wins by throwing a lot of punches; so his own game plan and pace must then change.

    He doesn’t want to find himself in round 8 behind on points and still unable to control you - so he must increase his punch output, and for that he must move more, and for that he must telegraph what he’s doing more, and for that he can't simply wait for you to come to him.

    His whole style and approach must - within reason - change.

    Small aspects of this became obvious in Cotto’s Mayweather fight.

    Not all though, and that’s because (amongst the many reasons) Floyd had (some) respect for Cotto’s power and this combined with the fact that Floyd likes to take a lot of breaks in fights remaining in his defensive position - posturing and staying fresh - provided (and this is the thing that was not always the case with Maidana) Floyd feels the judges themselves perceive Floyd being in that role both comfortably and also by his own choice - that is not being bothered and in control.

    That’s actually a key element to Floyd’s defensive game - for the judges to not be scoring him down - or the other guy up - just because Floyd is shoulder rolling.

    If done properly it means Floyd gets to conserve energy and pot shot - whilst still not landing the greater amount of shots compared to the other guy - all whilst Floyd is (hopefully) not falling behind on points; despite doing less and sometimes nothing.

    Not many other techniques allow a guy to do that; whether or not the other guy is blowing his gas for the later rounds.

    And this is why Floyd makes sure he poses and shakes his head (when/if hit) as he does it; so the judges don’t think he’s there for any other reason than because Floyd wants to. If he is convincing with this act then, subjectively, a judge will have a hard time marking Floyd down (my term, and not necessarily what happens).

    Particularly if Floyd has convinced the judge that he’s there on the ropes because he wants to be - not because of his opponent.

    And there’s nothing like a few well placed denial-head-shakes and counter uppercuts and hooks, as he lays on the ropes; to do that; is there?

    These defensive breaks and Mayweather’s real and unannounced reliance on them, allowed Cotto - when in against Floyd - to conceal some of the above-mentioned and less obvious aspects of how Mayweather taking away (some of) Cotto’s power and consistently making him move; forced Cotto to change.

    Martinez will know this.

    Even greater aspects of the same approach to fighting Cotto, taking away his power and other advantages, and making him change, were obvious with his fights with Pacquiao and Trout.

    I don’t want to get too deep into analysis of the Pacquiao and Cotto fight, as I actually think the contracted weight details of that fight left a lot to be desired and that Cotto fought extremely admirably considering that.

    If one has a look at Cotto’s Trout and Mayweather fights, it’s almost completely obvious that the above-mentioned changes forces Cotto into a rhythm and game-plan that he’s not entirely comfortable with, and from that it’s almost as patently clear when Cotto is going to throw punches - as is his undeniable need to do that (throw when he may not otherwise); because of the above-mentioned and also the resulting switch of priorities it brings that in turn forces objective point scoring to become a consideration in the fight for Cotto - much more than it ordinarily would have.

    It’s another, more detailed and/or analytical way to say Cotto’s game-plan changed.

    The difference is I am telling how and why, rather than just saying that Cotto’s game-plan changed.

    As a result, as Cotto predictably and continuously walked down and/or over to Trout, Pacquiao or Mayweather, and they knew that whenever Cotto stopped bouncing and moving, he was going to throw.

    Cotto bounced up and down, sometimes, to make it look as if it was all a part of his plan - but it wasn’t. And of course, Cotto’s style - unlike Floyd’s - won’t usually allow him to (effectively) throw (and prepare for and/or consider the response of his {top level} opponents) as he bounces.

    So when he stops, you know he has to throw, as he was behind on points and his game-plan had been changed to consider objective point scoring.

    And that’s when Cotto’s above-mentioned, top level, opponents either moved, timed him and/or threw back - if they weren’t getting the worse for any exchange that is.

    This is where Cotto’s lack of feints and some of the other more delicate or intricate aspects of the game that not only provide for options and variety - but in Cotto’s circumstance appear to have also slowly drifted out of his repertoire - may have come back to hurt him.

    It’s all about adaptability.

    In essence what happens could possibly be described like this; Cotto’s catalog of professional fighting characteristics, particularly that aspect and/or feature of them that makes them so solid and tightly bound that he doesn’t even have to usually think about them to employ them; they're just second nature, there and ready to be instantly invoked whenever, wherever and in whatever order - is also what actually makes them and Cotto, sometimes, just a little bit susceptible and/or vulnerable.

    You see, with a guy like Cotto and many others, they’re all so tightly wound together that each attribute is highly dependent upon the other.

    As a fighter comes up through the (top) ranks sometimes his management will negotiate around these slight deficiencies - even without knowing it - and as such the boxer himself won’t know they exist until he’s set in his ways and/or it’s too late.

    Particularly if his opponent’s game-plan is focused on them, and or removing or minimizing them and other advantages.

    Take one of them away, or meaningfully subtract an advantage - which is exactly what Austin trout did - and it soon become obvious that the others are not quite so independent and/or tightly integrated, and like the bottom end of an internal combustion engine things will soon become noticeably unbalanced and predictable if one cylinder isn’t firing.

    As I said above, it can sometimes be all about adaptability, and not many guys - particularly those whom enjoy and have worked hard to have, say, a power advantage - will purposefully go to the gym and practice sparring top guys whilst not using that power advantage in sparring; just to become familiarized with fighting a guy that can take it away.

    Instead, they’d prefer to focus on ways to deliver the power under those circumstances - rather than get used to having it not be there.

    Also too, it takes a long time to sort out the pecking order in some boxing gyms, and I don’t know too many guys that want to slide down the hierarchical ladder just for the sake of it.

    Know what I mean? 

    And this is what has happened as Cotto has developed into championship 12 round boxer-puncher fighter over the last 8 years or so; whose main aces up his sleeve - as a top tier championship fighter- are (amongst all the other typically excellent attributes) probably consistent pressure, big power through all 12 rounds, reliable stamina, solid determination and excellent punch resistance.

    What I am talking about happens to a lot of guys, not just Cotto, and I think this is what Freddie Roach is saying when he talks of the changes he (thinks) he has med in Cotto.

    I should imagine that after Mosely, if not before, Cotto probably found that for the most part there was no need to continue practicing many of the intricate aspects of the game that he may have been applauded for in the amateurs or even early in his professional career. After all if he was beating technicians like Victoriano Sosa, Corely and Shane Mosley with his power punching boxer-puncher style and approach, then why spend all that time practicing techniques that assume you have no power and assume you need to be able to slip all punches.

    After all, no one loses their power right? Look at George Foreman.

    These things are all the more easy to believe whenever you walk into a gym and everyone is telling you what you want to hear.

    But there is a reason why the Puerto Rican amateur and overall fighting regime and program is perhaps not necessarily as highly heralded as the Cubans. The tools within which each is provided can be considered to be a different as night and day by some well renown professional trainers, and whereas you probably wouldn’t get much pressure to improve your noticeably defective technique in Puerto Rico if your were knocking most guys out - in Cuba not only would you still get pulled up for your noticeably defective footwork and other oversights - but you would also probably get shown how you may one day need that skill.

    And so the philosophical consideration can sometimes be do you labor yourself and continue to persist with several seemingly irrelevant drills that originated in your amateur years to keep these infrequently utilized skills fresh - all throughout your professional career - solely due to the off chance that you may one day need them?

    Or do you dispense with them and prove to yourself and others that the time and effort is better spent on developing power, keeping it simple and knocking guys out . . . . because after all, in the 9th round when your gasping for air, you forget most of the intricate moves anyway?

    Ask Floyd Mayweather or Sugar Ray Leonard whether they would like to have less technical options and/or how much their well known technical options have played a part in their longevity?

    Cotto has rarely concerned himself with footwork in the same sense that say guys like Gamboa, Mayweather, Guzman, Pacquiao and other smooth and/or efficient top level operators have. And, to me, I am always amazed to see this because, in my humble opinion, one of Cotto’s main strengths is his power.

    But his power can only be delivered when his feet are in certain positions, which makes him vulnerable and predictable should he run into a guy that understands this.

    Other readers and posters on this site may recall when I wrote about Gennady Golovkin’s One Significant Technical Origin Of Power

    http://www.thesweetscience.com/forum...-s-Power/page9

    Throughout that thread I provided a few breakdown and analogies for the subject at hand at the time. Within a few of them I used kinetic energy and also a drag racing analogy.

    A similar approach may be useful here, as you can have two pro-stock cars with identical weights, where one has 1100HP and another running with a significant deficit of 300HP; possessing only 800HP. The 800HP vehicle can still pull across the quarter mile in less time.

    Provided it has better traction.

    Remember the saying; “power without control is nothing”?

    Well, it’s the same in boxing.

    If Cotto, or anyone else for that matter - Martinez included - can't mobilize their power - it is useless.

    And this is one significant origin of how Trout, Pacquiao and Mayweather and even Shane Mosely managed to marginalize some of Cotto’s advantages - in particular his power, when they found themselves across the ring from him for 12 rounds.

    Cotto needs his feet to be planted to deliver his big time power, it makes him predictable, and this is why Freddie Roach is talking about bringing back Miguel Cotto’s body shots. As Freddie - more than most - knows that Cotto’s aforementioned reliance on power, and therefore having his feet planted, will not change at this stage of his career.

    Roach, Martinez and his team, and also others in the fight game, also know that - at this late stage of Cotto’s career - his style and the game-plans that are meaningfully available to him that can be easily executed within marquee level championship fights are also reasonably well known.

    Therefore, Roach (and I should also imagine many other top level trainers and professional tacticians and matchmakers within the fight game) will all, by this stage, know that team Cotto needs to find a way to ensure that this limitation - which whether you look at it from Martinez’ perspective or Miguel’s - doesn’t work against them.

    Furthermore, it’s silly, dangerous, and unprofessional to assume that Martinez’ team are unaware of it - they will know.

    Therefore, since it’s unlikely that Cotto will learn to punch and deliver power on the run at this twilight and late stage of his boxing career; team Cotto and the Wildcard gym need to find a way to stop the other guy from presenting the situations that would force Cotto into a situation where this vulnerability is exposed and working against him.

    Which is particularly tricky considering that one of Martinez’ main strengths is just what usually exposes the vulnerabilities I speak of that Cotto usually does a very good job or concealing and working around.

    Roach knows all this acutely well, as he successfully utilized all these considerations and strategies within the Pacquiao V Cotto fight; when he trained Pacquiao. He also knows of Cotto’s above-mentioned and well demonstrated abilities to continuously and successfully conceal and/or work around his above-described limitations and vulnerabilities, and this is why he threw in the catch-weight stipulation with the Pacquiao V Cotto fight to ensure beyond any doubt that success was theirs and that Pacquiao remained both his and top Rank’s cash cow.

    So, since it’s unlikely that Cotto will learn to punch and deliver power on the run at this late stage of his boxing career team Cotto and the Wildcard gym have not to many options available to them to ensure that Martinez doesn’t present the above-mentioned situations that would ordinarily force Cotto into the situations where his vulnerabilities are exposed and working against him; as was noticeably the case with Pacquiao and Trout.

    This is why Roach is talking body, body, body.

    Because if you can’t make Cotto punch on the move and reduce his reliance on either winning fights with power and how that itself also relies on Cotto’s target not being mobile; then you have to stop the target itself from being so mobile.

    So this fight becomes a game of who can ensure their limitation remains out of the picture longer than the other. For Cotto it’s his above-mentioned reliance on power and being relatively static that he needs to ensure Martinez doesn’t capitalize on. For Martinez it’s his lack of defence and balance combined with what some say is average punch resistance, that he needs to ensure Cotto doesn’t capitalize on.

    Both guys are made for each other’s weaknesses.

    It’s worth also noting that, even though I have in an indirect way touched on it above, most of the guys that have convincingly beat Cotto have also had good movement, speed or they have been southpaws; or both.

    Martinez is actually both.

    But his defence - that is the part of it that’s not almost wholly reliant upon his feet and athleticism - is really pretty average.

    Martinez is by no means a good technical boxer. He is highly unorthodox and he has no significantly noticeable (traditional) boxing skills and punches that I think really stand out.

    Even Martinez’ fast jabs… his head and chin is often high as he throws - his hands drop immediately almost every time after he has pushed his shots out leaving himself open for counters, and he is often wildly off balance sometimes.

    I know Martinez is reasonably fast and agile. But I don’t see many punches in his kit - save perhaps the lunging-wide-sweeping counter left cross-hook that he likes to throw from the outside of his opponent’s left foot/jab, similarly to Pacquiao - that doesn’t have some kind so fundamental issue with it.

    Almost all of his punches leave him open for a counter and/or unnecessarily vulnerable, particularly when/if fatigue problems set in.

    Furthermore, as far as Martinez’ punches are concerned . . . they’re almost all - just as Cotto’s style is reliant on his power to some extent - reliant upon Sergio’s athleticism and therefore there is no room for error, and no real plan “B”.

    This, in my opinion, became really obvious in Martinez’ fight against Pavlik. Particularly within the middle rounds where Kelly started to time Sergio, diffuse his movement, and get to him.

    When that happened, Martinez simply didn’t know what to do and kept running and showboating - there was no plan “B”.

    If someone where to get to Sergio Martinez’ body and kill it early in the fight I believe that his whole game-plan would be out the window, as Martinez can't throw technically sound multiple punch combinations - his balance is awful - his defence is too reliant on his movement, and he often over commits and loses balance.

    In summary Martinez is a (quick) counter-punchers’ dream come true - particularly when he’s off balance.

    Of course, like Roy Jones, all these unusual attributes work beautifully for Sergio - particularly whilst they remain solidly integrated into repertoire and particularly whilst Martinez is not fatigued.

    But before you start to think, whom could Cotto get to spar and prepare with that would meaningfully emulate Sergio?

    Remember that Cotto’s trainer right now probably knows more about how any slick southpaws works and how to beat them, as he also trains Manny Pacquiao.

    And aside from the fact that Cotto’s main meaningful professional fighting experience could probably be defined as being restricted to Judah, Pacquiao and Corley; the fact remains that Cotto has probably been sparring with Pacquiao for this fight, and if that’s the case then Cotto could possibly have a major advantage going into the fight.

    He may even have all the ways to counter and diffuse Martinez down pat - which, I should imagine, is a feeling that very few of Sergio Martinez’ opponents experience as they step up into the ring to fight him.

    If anyone knows how to deal with all the tricky southpaw moves that Martinez executes, it will certainly be Roach.

    As not only has he trained Pacquiao and not only is there a reasonably good likeness between some of Martinez’ moves and Pacquiao’s; but Roach has also prepared Chavez for Martinez too.

    All up, Cotto is still more of a pound for pound legend than Martinez though, in my opinion, and all the above-mentioned considerations are what makes this a good and intriguing matchup.

    Martinez, even aside from his perceived weight and size advantage, represents almost all of what has troubled Cotto.

    Furthermore, he represents it in a potentially more powerful and bigger package than most slick and/or fast southpaws Cotto has fought.

    If Martinez can keep the legend Miguel Cotto moving and resetting, and if he can land on Cotto and avoid Cotto’s counters; then Cotto will be forced to trundle forward and think of the objective points scorecards - which could set up victory for Martinez that is embarrassing for Cotto.

    However, if Cotto can stay in close range, hang behind his defence, and not just end up being Martinez’s shadow chasing him around the ring; then that will be a very good start.

    I have no idea how Cotto will do that early in the fight though, as I don’t see Miguel changing too much at this stage of his career and Martinez will come out, be inspired by what worked for Trout, and both throw and move off to the side; waiting for Cotto to reset and chase.

    Cotto must diffuse this, and instead try to close down Martinez’ right jab and slowly bring power into the game.

    In my humble opinion one of the best ways for Cotto to do that is not with overcommitted jabs - but with range finder jabs that ensure Martinez must reach for his shots, and also by using left-hook counters and right crosses on Martinez; but not necessarily in that order.

    I would also like to see Cotto try and milk out that lunging counter left-cross that Martinez loves to throw. Perhaps even counter it with body shots and a right cross of Cotto’s own.

    The best way for Cotto to do that is to simply walk in with his hands up or as above-mentioned, and then only throw when in range.

    And that’s what Cotto does really well.

    He can hang behind his defence pretty well, it’s a pretty solid defence, and from there Cotto can wait for Martinez to throw and present countering opportunities - because he will know that whenever Martinez does that, one thing will be for certain; Martinez’ hands will not always be where they should be and he can be hit.

    Provided Cotto is close enough.

    That’s my take.

  7. #27
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    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Cotto will be close enough. Martinez is a sitting duck. And against Cotto, he will have no luck. His wings, Cotto is going to pluck. And plug him on that chin that he will not and doesn't know how to tuck. Holla!

  8. #28
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    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    Shane truly beat Cotto.

    Zab almost sparked him out and I agree with Storm, if he would have risked it he may have gotten the KO.

    Cotto got schooled by a "B" fighter in Austin Trout.

    Sure Sergio is a bit worn and aging, but this long layoff has been very helpful. He still possesses the hand speed and power to be elite at this level. Sure his legs will not have the same life or bounce but he will NOT need them in that manner for this fight.

    Expect Sergio to sit down more and acquire angles through upper body movement, feints and a step here and there.

  9. #29
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    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    I bet the house , the farm and the money under the bed on Marquez . I will put up my second farm , house and cash on cotto . The left hook to the body -straight right to the head will buckle Sergio's knees or what is left of them . Sergio needs lateral movement to win , can his knees keep him moving ? Cotto makes history at the garden . The Puerto Rican day parade will show its love . Cotto wins.

  10. #30
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    Re: SERGIO MARTINEZ Predicts KO of Cotto, Round Nine Or Earlier

    @stormcentre: Nice breakdown.

    @amayseng: I got huge respect for Martinez, and mostly for the way he's managed to utilize his strengths to maximum, but keep in mind against whom he's had his greatest moments. Williams: cheek hanging out, waiting to get nailed. (And via Martinez circling in perfect curves to ensure moments to tag him). Dzinziruk: good boxer, but just that - pure boxer. Chavez Jr: well, I need not say more. Now remember guys like Barker and Macklin; both limited, and both able to give Martinez problems. Why? They covered up and relied on the ABC of the sport.

    Cotto is a completely different thing from both Barker and Macklin. He can cover up, he can cut the ring - even if he's far from the best at it, and at times have been walking around without purpose - and he can deliver pain. He has his flaws - such as the footwork - but I really believe this is a fight where they will be negated by the nature of the fight we will be treated.

    However it unfolds, I'm sure it'll be a great night of fighting.

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