Guerrero’s Guns Aren’t Big Enough To Hold Off Garcia

Guerrero’s Guns – This Saturday night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, two tough guys are going to clash for the vacant WBC welterweight title. The title was last owned by Floyd Mayweather. Floyd vacated the belt when he retired after beating Andre Berto in his last bout last September.

The participants are both respected former title holders and their mindset and fighting styles should provide for some compelling fireworks and exchanges as long as the bout lasts. Yes, Danny Garcia 31-0 (18) and Roberto Guerrero 33-3-1 (18) are both fighters who you don’t have to look for. Backing up or backing down is definitely not a part of their mental constitution.

Garcia, 27, and Guerrero, 32, are two of the easiest professional boxers to like and root for. They’re legitimate world class pros who have shared a ring with some of the biggest names and best fighters of their generation. However, I don’t expect the fight to be all that competitive. Guerrero, who went the distance with Floyd Mayweather in 2013, is on the decline and isn’t as formidable as he was three years ago. I don’t give him much of a chance to beat Garcia with the WBC welterweight title on the line this Saturday night.

When the bout was initially announced, I conveyed that Garcia and Guerrero will be right there for each other to hit because neither is hard to find. The big difference is, Garcia is much quicker and gets off better, and he’s more energetic now than Guerrero. Danny is also the bigger two handed puncher and the more firefights that erupt between them favor Garcia. On paper Garcia-Guerrero would appear to be a competitive fight. It’s not like either Danny or Robert can move, box and punch like a vintage Sugar Ray Leonard circa 1977-82. They’re the type of fighters who like to mix it up and trade. They’re not walk-in, take three to land one brawlers, they really do try to avoid getting hit….it’s just that they are not that good at defending and making opponents miss. What happens is, once they get nailed real good they become hell-bent on hitting their opponent back that much harder. And it is for that reason I don’t believe Guerrero has much of a shot in this particular bout.

No, I don’t expect Guerrero to be taken apart by Garcia; however I wouldn’t be surprised if Robert is stopped for the first time in his career. This is a fight where neither fighter is going to have much trouble landing their Sunday punch. The problem for Guerrero is, he doesn’t punch nearly hard enough to force Garcia to do a single thing that he doesn’t want to do. And that will loom exponentially huge in this bout because both fighters will be landing their finishing punches at a high rate.

In professional boxing, when you have two fighters facing each other who are relatively close in skill as boxers, punching power and the ability to deliver it usually decides the outcome. Right now Danny Garcia is the bigger and more accurate puncher, and because of that he’s going to be able to impose himself physically on Guerrero since he probably knows there’s is no risk in going after him full bore. Without the worriment of getting hurt by Guerrero, Danny will be able to do anything he wants because Robert won’t be able to do anything about it.

Often when breaking down fights and fighters, punching power, unless one guy is a legitimate life-taker, is overrated. Most of the time, it’s the more versatile technician who combines toughness and respectable power that wins. However, that won’t apply in this fight, and the reason for that is, Garcia won’t even attempt to outbox Guerrero. Instead he is going to try and overwhelm Robert and beat him up. Conversely, Guerrero, after he realizes that he cannot handle Garcia by trading with him, will alter his style and attempt to out-score Danny via movement and getting in and out. Only I don’t see Garcia allowing him to do that. Instead Garcia may be willing to eat a couple of Robert’s jabs and crosses just so he can get in on Guerrero and open up with his short hooks and right uppercuts. And if that happens, Guerrero isn’t the type of fighter who will hold or attempt to break off the exchange and escape the fire. It’s more likely that Robert’s big heart will summon his guns to do something they’re not big enough to do, and that’s fight Garcia off of him.

The way I see the fight unfolding is – Guerrero will attempt to box Garcia early, but I doubt Danny will give him the needed time and ring geography to do it. Once Guerrero is forced to abandon boxing because he’s getting the worst of it, he’ll rush his shots and fight it out with him, and if that happens every dynamic imaginable favors Garcia. Guerrero has a great chin and is as tough as any fighter mentally, but he’s more shopworn and isn’t that hard to find and hit, especially when he’s fighting to survive as he’s trying to stabilize the action without getting run over by Garcia.

I wouldn’t count on Guerrero getting stopped in this fight, but if it happened it wouldn’t come as a complete shock. In the end Garcia will have a little too much pop in his punches and more energy, fueling a higher work-rate, and that will be the difference. Garcia will beat Guerrero with perhaps maybe one scare along the way, if that.

I just hope that if Guerrero is taking a lot of punches, and it’s obvious he doesn’t have anything in his arsenal to salvage the bout, that his corner doesn’t let him take too many unnecessary shots. And the reason for that is Robert will never submit or back down. Garcia is a terrible match for him stylistically at this stage of his career.

Frank Lotierzo can be contacted at GlovedFist@Gmail.com

 

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COMMENTS

-deepwater2 :

Danny Garcia has been in soft lately. The ghost is on a losing streak and does not deserve a shot at the welterweight belt. Garcia does what he needs to do I suppose, but the lineal 140 champ already got his freebie fight at the new weight,against Showtime announcer Paulie M. When will Garcia fight another Pbc top guy? The ghost is not a top guy anymore and showed that in his last few fights.


-mortcola :

Despite Garcia?s run of wins, I have always thought he is overrated. While he has improved since the Khan fight, in which he landed a hail-Mary hook with his eyes closed, there is still something stiff and unimaginative to his punch output, which he makes up for with good fighting desire and a seemingly solid chin. Malignaggi suffered from Paulie syndrome - did some fine boxing but was clearly past his prime and fought off an even wider stance than usual, hampering his necessary mobility, and doesn?t hit hard enough to keep a strong fighter like Garcia off him. Guerrero just might be truly over the hill, but may have just had a few unfocused nights in the ring. I think that if Guerrero is in good mental and physical shape, he brings abilities true to his name that may be just the sort that can expose Danny?s weaknesses. Its a big if - I think Danny?s character and self-belief have gotten him to make effective use of skills that aren?t much better than average, and a GOOD Gerrero may be just the guy to push Garcia to fight hurt and lose exchanges. I have doubts that Robert has enough left to do this steadily across 12 rounds, but I look forward to a more interesting fight than some people predict.


-Radam G :

Despite Garcia’s run of wins, I have always thought he is overrated. While he has improved since the Khan fight, in which he landed a hail-Mary hook with his eyes closed, there is still something stiff and unimaginative to his punch output, which he makes up for with good fighting desire and a seemingly solid chin. Malignaggi suffered from Paulie syndrome - did some fine boxing but was clearly past his prime and fought off an even wider stance than usual, hampering his necessary mobility, and doesn’t hit hard enough to keep a strong fighter like Garcia off him. Guerrero just might be truly over the hill, but may have just had a few unfocused nights in the ring. I think that if Guerrero is in good mental and physical shape, he brings abilities true to his name that may be just the sort that can expose Danny’s weaknesses. Its a big if - I think Danny’s character and self-belief have gotten him to make effective use of skills that aren’t much better than average, and a GOOD Gerrero may be just the guy to push Garcia to fight hurt and lose exchanges. I have doubts that Robert has enough left to do this steadily across 12 rounds, but I look forward to a more interesting fight than some people predict.
With you, I'm riding. But you don't see me because I'm bytch hiding. The Cali Ghost has been such a holy humbug, that I always cheer against him. But I also always call a spade a spade and never hide in the shade. And I have a strong hunch that TCG is going to surprise the c0cksure Philly Rican. TCG probably will not get a decision, and he might get stopped. Nonetheless, Danny G is not going to look "Swift." He is going to look more like an aging MILF. Hehe! I'm just conniving and high fiving and being a bit hyperbolic. Holla!


-amayseng :

If the Ghost isn't done and run down then he takes Garcia to school out boxing him mainly and out slugging him off and on in between. Garcia has looked terrible as of late. Peterson boxed his ears off last year before the freebie Paulie fight. Even if the Ghost beats him Garcia will get his usual paid for UD but I see a highly competitive fight coming.


-Gabrielito :

Great points Radam, hadn't considered the Ghost winning. He's my neighbor so I hope he does but I think Garcia is looking for a big KO and he's gonna get it. I was a fan of Garcia until the Herrera robbery. Danny and Angel have to know they lost that fight.


-riverside :

looks to me like Danny has something to prove, we might see a trigger happy Danny's guns blazing,his confidence is back and feels like he needs to take chances, if he gets Guerrero hurt like soft hitter aaron martinez did, battle wary Guerrero is ending up flat on his back.


-stormcentre :

Yep, hard to accurately gauge where both guys are at this stage of their careers. Danny, is no technician, that's for sure; but he's tough, sticks to the fundamentals, and he really believes in himself. Robert is pretty accomplished, has the better record/experience, and is also very tough; it's just hard not to think he's not quite as motivated as he was before his Floyd payday. If Danny stays composed and can handle some of the onslaught whilst Robert is fresh, the fight may be easier than it otherwise could be - especially once Robert starts to fray at the edges due to fatigue in the late rounds. Robert (as a reasonably careless southpaw that has now also slowed down some) is, these days, pretty much a sitting duck for a well timed right cross and left hook. But then, on the other hand, he's also (usually) pretty resilient and has shown some pretty good punch resistance (last few fights aside) and heart too. If Robert is really prepared and geared up for this fight both him and his lefty style could prove to be a little more tougher than Danny might like. This will be all about stamina and punch resistance.