MANNY CAN WIN THIS FIGHT

On March 29, 2012, I published a column on this very site claiming that Manny Pacquiao would defeat Floyd Mayweather if they were to meet in a boxing match–at that time.

The illusive matchup seemed so real and so close for so long. Finally, the two best fighters of a generation (who maddeningly fought at the same weight) will finally square off and answer this question definitively: Who would win?

Today, I’ll revisit the key points in my thesis and see which ones hold up, which ones are no longer accurate (a lot can and has changed in 3 years in boxing), and who I think wins the fight. As a bonus, and since I’ll be watching this from Las Vegas’ legendary atmosphere—and the ticket fiasco was as frustrating and wild as advertised–, I’ll be providing my betting tips for fight night to make sure this piece is as lucrative for its readers as it is entertaining.

Sidebar: I’m tired of hearing the argument that this fight is “too late”. Certainly, both fighters have regressed as they approach what should be the downslope of their careers from an age perspective. But I think they’ve roughly declined the same amount. And despite those respective declines, they are still the top-2 draws in boxing, and the top-2 Welterweights in the world. Lastly, the wait should be worth it as their respective declines could turn this into a more fan-friendly affair. I digress.

For reference, here was the previous post:

http://www.thesweetscience.com/news/articles-frontpage/14332-pacquiao-would-beat-mayweather

Key Points from March 2012:

1) Floyd’s fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiao’s 4 fights vs. Marquez are not relevant comparisons. The transitive property does not apply in boxing.

Anyone who’s ever tried to prognosticate the outcome of a prizefight simply by comparing outcomes versus common opponents would be a fool. The old adage of “styles make fights” is truer than true and anything other argument would be fallacious.

It just so happens that JMM is the perfect and worthy adversary for Pacquiao (Manny’s explosive speed/offense vs. Marquez’s crisp, technical counterpunching/timing). The fact that Manny got knocked out is also hardly relevant as he was winning the fight, on the verge of his own KO, and simply got caught with the perfect punch. Sure, Mayweather handled Marquez with ease and also fits the technical counterpuncher label, but Mayweather’s speed is/was his greatest asset. Not to say he isn’t still faster than Manny (he certainly is), but he’s certainly not as fast as he was back then (almost 6 years ago by fight time).

Anyhow, the same argument could be made of Pacquiao v. Cotto. Whereas Floyd won a close and tough fight, Manny dismantled Cotto who was way closer to his prime then compared to when Mayweather fought him (this isn’t in question). Same story with Manny’s annihilation of De La Hoya compared to Floyd’s razor-thin decision over DLH (Oscar was more washed up for Manny in this example)– they simply aren’t relevant in this discussion.

It’s simple. Styles make fights, and Manny’s style poses problems for Floyd.

1) He’s a Southpaw: I don’t think there’s any merit to claims of Floyd avoiding southpaws, but lefties make you change a LOT on both offense and defense and Floyd hasn’t fought a truly high-level left-handed fighter in a while

2) Very quick puncher: While Floyd has a speed advantage, only Zab Judah could match Manny’s quick (and Lefty) punches, which did get through on occasion

3) Combination puncher (sometimes): – This is the key to the entire fight. Floyd can block/dodge/deflect/counter any single shot, but Mayweather’s programmatic counters don’t account for Pacman’s angles/combos (no sparring partner can mimic them). He’ll have an answer for Manny’s 1-2s, so Manny MUST commit to jab first.

4) Manny is a hard puncher: While Manny is not a thudding, heavy-handed power puncher like Marcos Maidana, he has plenty of pop in his hands. He may not hurt Floyd as in knock him down, but Floyd cannot get lazy and take a few arm punches like he did routinely against Maidana.

5) Aggressive, move-forward fighter: Floyd is at his best in the center of the ring and when he gets off first. Manny will engage him in exchanges and continue moving forward. He is not the plodding, rough-him-up type, but more explosive combos before resetting. If Manny can avoid counter uppercuts around the ropes and effectively moves his head when throwing, he should be able to back Floyd up routinely.

6) Unique Angles: As mentioned, there’s no sparring partner to mirror Manny’s angles. They’re unconventional, imaginative, and not replicable. Floyd’s relatively impenetrable defense doesn’t account for how he can get around/between opponents’ guard.

7) Footwork. Manny’s greatest asset has always been his footwork. His explosiveness in closing/creating distance and scoring angles is elite. Whereas Floyd can rely on his ring smarts/hand speed to win exchanges, he’s never faced someone who will both willingly exchange with him and then also reset himself in good punching position without getting reckless/lazy.

2) Manny has more ways to win since he could conceivably knock out Floyd, but the opposite is not true.

-I’m far less convinced now that Manny could knock Floyd out. Manny’s power really hasn’t come up with him through all these weight classes. He still has very hard punches that do damage, but he hasn’t knocked anyone silly in a long time. And he hit Chris Algieri with some very hard shots… but didn’t knock him out. I definitely worry about Manny’s chin after the lights out KO he suffered in his fourth fight with Marquez. Nobody is ever completely the same after a total lights-out blow like that. I’ve seen enough to know you become more susceptible to KOs, etc., but Manny hasn’t looked much different in his recent fights after the KO. He’s not much slower (no more than standard aging would produce), less tentative (OK, maybe a tiny bit), or more prone to being hurt. He’s not been really hit by a Welterweight puncher with any significant pop, but he’s taken clean blows. I doubt either fighter scores a KO, so I think the safest bet of the night is that the fight goes 12 full rounds. (Over 11.5 Rounds = -300 (Bet 300, win $100))

3) Mayweather’s comfort level in exchanges would be a weakness against Manny

Floyd is straight up programmed to be a boxer. It’s uncanny. That said, his defensive instincts/reactions aren’t as adept to weird angles that Cotto and Maidana threw at him, and most of all those which Manny will throw at him. Floyd is used to winning almost all exchanges he’s in given his prowess for both defense and counter-punching. He’s the best at both in the last 20 years. That said, he isn’t the same flawless fighter he was 5-10 years ago, and if he doesn’t connect on his initial counters, he will be facing multiple punches with both hands from weird angles. That’s what Manny does. Mayweather’s comfort level in said exchanges will leave him vulnerable to the follow-up shots.

4) Along the ropes, Manny’s volume style would bother Floyd, or at least convince judges that he’s doing enough damage to squeak out rounds.

Manny doesn’t have a smothering style like Maidana, Cotto, and even Oscar De La Hoya employed against Floyd. That said, against the ropes, Manny will rip off 5, 6, 7, and even 8-punch combinations like this:

{youtube}Fm6eMjjjaKs{/youtube}

Notice how he lands around the guard without crowding him. He puts his opponent on the end of shots to maximize power. Now, Mayweather will be very dangerous here with uppercuts. VERY. However, Manny doesn’t even need to land a ton cleanly to win this fight. Simply by looking like he’s doing damage can rack up close rounds on the scorecard in his favor. This is significant and has led to all of the closely scored fights for Floyd in the last several years.

5) Manny steals 2-3 rounds on late flurries

Similar to the previous point, the scorecards will likely come into play since this likely goes the full 12 rounds. There’s likely to be several close rounds, and Manny’s late flurries (something he does often) is likely to steal him at least 2-3 rounds. Any one of those can be the difference of a 115-113 decision going his way.

6) Floyd is a 1-and-done puncher and will be out-landed in total

Floyd needs to be first as Paulie Malignaggi kept referencing during Mayweather-Maidana 1. If he is, he demoralizes people. I genuinely think Floyd will be out-thrown by over 200 punches, and out-landed by more than 50. It’s common for him to be drastically out-thrown. It’s not common for him to be out-landed. Pacquiao can only win if this happens (which would be a byproduct of establishing a varied jab and throwing punches in bunches).

7) Floyd would need to show skills he hasn’t in a long time: standing in middle of ring and winning an inside fight, slugfest, etc.

-Maidana 1 was a slugfest. I suppose so was his Cotto fight. When in the center of ring, he owned both. Floyd’s inability to dictate where fight took place is alarming and what made them interesting fights. Pacquiao could be the one guy who can land (not even win exchanges, just land) anything significant against Mayweather in the center of ring. I actually think this turns into a slugfest, and Floyd has now proven he can handle himself well in those types of fights. He remains calm, confident, and closes the show well. This point is no longer accurate.

Important point not mentioned: Manny’s demeanor when he gets hit. If you watch any of Manny’s earlier classics with Marquez, Morales, etc…he gets really fired up when gets tagged. Whereas Floyd nearly always frustrates his opponents by completely shutting down their respective offense (see: Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and many others), and then they get wild and mentally defeated. Manny won’t do this. You’ll see when Mayweather lands flush right hands, Manny will bang his gloves together and look to return fire immediately. He’s one of those guys that needs to answer anything he takes on the chin. It’s why this fight has the potential to be a firefight.

End of the day: If Manny can establish his jab early, and continue to punch in combinations/high volumes, he will win what I expect to be a fantastic fight. I get the feeling this will be worth the wait, we’ll want a rematch, and I can’t wait to be there for it.

The betting options are:

Manny by KO, TKO, DQ: +400

Manny by Decision: +400

Manny to win: +160

Floyd by KO, TKO, DQ: +500

Floyd by Decision: -130

Floyd to win: -200

The most sensible bet would be to bet BOTH Manny by KO and Manny by Decision. While I think Decision is the far more likely scenario, betting $100 on both would return a $200 profit combined if Manny wins (regardless of how). If you just Bet on Manny winning, $200 investment only nets the bettor $120 in profit.

If you do like Floyd, I think the bet is to pick him by KO at +500. He should NOT be a 2-to-1 favorite, but I can definitely see a scenario where he catches Manny flush with counter uppercuts and right hands and potentially stops Manny.

Bottom line, this is a pick-em fight, and at +160, Manny is the better bet.

The Flurry:

-Gennady “GGG” Golovkin is the best fighter in boxing P4P. The only one who can give him a good fight (and possibly beat him) is Andre Ward. I expect we see that fight in 2016 despite Ward’s weight advantage. Kovalev is in top-10 for sure. As HBO’s cornerstones, those are great building blocks. Both are must-see TV for the hardcore fans… but is that enough?

-PBC is GREAT (so far) for boxing, and makes me happy to hear casual/non-fans talking about it. It’ll be interesting to see if Haymon tries to make it more like a “league” than a TV series, which seems to be the case. He could unify belts for real, and again that would be tremendous for boxing. If good guys keep fighting good guys (assuming you don’t have to be a “Haymon Guy” to fight in PBC), we don’t have these Manny-Floyd scenarios in the future. But will the Roc Nation guys be allowed on cards? Regardless, competition is good for business. HBO will need to continue to step up their games, adapt, or be left in the dust. That’s a good thing for fans as streaming media continues its takeover of media consumption in homes.

-Unless Adrien Broner takes major leaps forward technically, he’ll never be the #1 guy at 140/147. Less of a comment on him than a comment on the depth of superstar-level talent there (Crawford is fantastic, Matthyse a lurking threat, Garcia looks legit but is untested, Mikey Garcia is coming, Porter/Brook/Khan are all championship material, and even guys like Devon Alexander are tough outs).

-Hope to see Tim Bradley soon, he’s always entertaining and a top 10 P4P fighter.

-If Matthysse-Provodnikov doesn’t win FOY, it’s because Mayweather-Pacquiao will.

Photo From Will Hart/HBO

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COMMENTS

-Chris L :

Ahhh I'm still on the fence; I just don't know who to back. As some others have pointed out, Mayweather can't be defensive against Pac for the whole 12 rounds. Pac's activity, whilst may not always be scoring punches, will have the eye of the judges IMO and he's going to be coming at Floyd throwing punches in bunches - at some point Floyd's going to have to trade with him in an attempt to stop Pac coming forward; and he (most likely) will be the one that's worse off in those exchanges. Earlier today I was thinking that Mayweather possibly would score the late stoppage, but now I can (possibly?) see Pac getting the decision. I'll probably have changed my mind twice again by this time tomorrow.


-amayseng :

Like I said after attending the Hopkins Kovalev fight Pac beats Floyd the same way: Controlled aggression keeping Floyd at the end of his punches away from counters and with controlling pace and volume and always exiting to the right away from that counter right hand . Pac is faster hands and feet this is his fight to lose


-Froggy :

Manny can win this fight ? Of course Manny can win this fight , I have been scratching my head trying to figure out how Money can win this fight ! Punches landed score points, punches avoided don't !


-Radam G :

Manny can win this fight ? Of course Manny can win this fight , I have been scratching my head trying to figure out how Money can win this fight ! Punches landed score points, punches avoided don't !
A chief maxim in boxing is that a great offense is a great defense. Whoop-arse offense indeed wins scraps. Not prevent and no indent. Money Team and Pops Joy May are full of syet with over emphasizing defense. A perfect storm is always reckless and a creator of havoc. Mass, severe HAVOC! Team Mayweather is trying to bullsyet talk its way into a win. And in boksing that is an unforgiving sin. You must fight a fight to get it right. Or you normally lose the night and the awarding of the fight. Holla!


-stormcentre :

A few points . . . . 1) Boxers actually/legitimately (can and have been) awarded points for defensive manoeuvres. 2) Not a bad article, although the objective was clearly to support its prequel; something evident by how much relevant information was missing (catch-weights, psychology of a beaten fighter after he suffers first loss {as it applies not just to Pac but also some common opponents he has with Mayweather}, options Floyd has already shown against lefties that move a lot, Guerrero's achievements and how {even aside from how he sparred Pac and stopped him [yes I know it's only sparring; just like it's only Roach saying ""that's enough, I don't want Manny to take any more"">} that easily makes him a truly good southpaw {check his titles and record}, and the list goes on). 3) Despite the above the author - as far as the outcome is concerned - MayPac be right. 4) Then, he could be wrong too. 5) Not long to go now. 6) Stay cool subjective boxing cats. 7) The world will still rotate on it's axis on May the 3rd. 8) Although there is nothing
substantial to suggest there won't be a little wobble to that axis. 9) Perhaps, just maybe, that wobble - if it is there - exhibits a diameter of 3.5 Miles. 10) If point 9 is true then it's most likely cause will be a Donkey (full to the brim of it's own . . . you know what :) ) laying down and exhausted somewhere above the equator within the Northern Hemisphere. 11) There's a lot more to this sport than meets the (Donkey Magic) eye. 12) Have this weekend no matter what the outcome is. 13) Don't be socially aggressive if the guy you're backing loses and/or you have been drinking. Peace. :)


-stormcentre :

A few points . . . . 1) Boxers actually/legitimately (can and have been) awarded points for defensive manoeuvres. 2) Not a bad article, although the objective was clearly to support its prequel; something evident by how much relevant information was missing (catch-weights, psychology of a beaten fighter after he suffers first loss {as it applies not just to Pac but also some common opponents he has with Mayweather}, options Floyd has already shown against lefties that move a lot, Guerrero's achievements and how {even aside from how he sparred Pac and stopped him [yes I know it's only sparring; just like it's only Roach saying ""that's enough, I don't want Manny to take any more"">} that easily makes him a truly good southpaw {check his titles and record}, and the list goes on). 3) Despite the above the author - as far as the outcome is concerned - MayPac be right. 4) Then, he could be wrong too. 5) Not long to go now. 6) Stay cool subjective boxing cats. 7) The world will still rotate on it's axis on May the 3rd. 8) Although there is nothing
substantial to suggest there won't be a little wobble to that axis; confined to only the North Pole where Santa lives. 9) Perhaps, just maybe, that wobble - if it is there after MayPac - exhibits a diameter of 3.5 Miles. 10) If point 9 is true then it's most likely cause will be a Donkey (full to the brim of it's own . . . you know what :) ) laying down and exhausted somewhere above the equator within the Northern Hemisphere. 11) There's a lot more to this sport than meets the (Donkey Magic) eye. 12) Have fun this weekend - no matter what the MayPac outcome is. 13) Don't be socially aggressive if the guy you're backing loses and/or you have been drinking. Peace. :)


-stormcentre :

A chief maxim in boxing is that a great offense is a great defense. Whoop-arse offense indeed wins scraps. Not prevent and no indent. Money Team and Pops Joy May are full of syet with over emphasizing defense. A perfect storm is always reckless and a creator of havoc. Mass, severe HAVOC! Team Mayweather is trying to bullsyet talk its way into a win. And in boksing that is an unforgiving sin. You must fight a fight to get it right. Or you normally lose the night and the awarding of the fight. Holla!
Hey Madam, Have a look over here . . . .
->http://www.thesweetscience.com/forums/showthread.php?20826-Note-USADA-Did-NOT-Test-Molina&p=80685&viewfull=1#post80685 And also the posts before/after that. :) I found - what appears to be - some reckless Donkey-Magic stuff written by a guy with a name similar to yours (whom not only claims he never makes stuff up - but also may have misplaced his "Solid as a rock TSS achivies, Youtube and Daily Motion back-up facilities"), that was discovered by a guy that goes by the name of
Storm. Keep on keeping PacHysterical. I would have thought you'd be in LV by now and flat-strap busy tending to all your PacJuiceEntourage responsibilities. Love ya work.
StormCentre
PS: Please don't think we have forgot abut your E&HHOF as we haven't.
->http://www.thesweetscience.com/forums/showthread.php?20462-Tally-List-Of-Un-Substantiated-Posts&p=79438&viewfull=1#post79438 That will be updated after MayPac with all the many recent gems you have offered. Keep up the good PacEntourageRepresentation work. :)


-#1 PacFan :

Very good article with great points. Manny by MD or 9th round stoppage. Str8 left will be key.


-stormcentre :


A chief maxim in boxing is that a great offense is a great defense. Whoop-arse offense indeed wins scraps. Not prevent and no indent. Money Team and Pops Joy May are full of syet with over emphasizing defense. A perfect storm is always reckless and a creator of havoc. Mass, severe HAVOC! Team Mayweather is trying to bullsyet talk its way into a win. And in boksing that is an unforgiving sin. You must fight a fight to get it right. Or you normally lose the night and the awarding of the fight. Holla!
[SIZE=8]Special Deal/Offer - Calling and CHALLENGING MMMMG. Hey Pinoy PowerPacQueenPack, Love ya work as always. In the true spirit of MayPac here's a challenge for you. If you can refrain from wild, incredible and untrue PacQueen and/or other claims (or disprove my assertion in that respect) and/or those claims you run from, then the friendly StormCentre will put his "MayPac Evenhandedness and Balance Social Avenger" responsibilities to one side for a while. Heck I may even put that Donkey Clown you love into the stables for a while.

Remember me? Behind the circus tent? As a token of my sincerity I will leave the above-bolded comment alone and not address it in terms of; 1) Only from the best defence does both a truly great offence and long/outstanding fighter, come. 2) Examples of how fighters over-reliant on offence have not always lasted long. 3) Examples of how fighters not over-reliant on offence and also possessing a great defence, have lasted long. 4) Analysis of Mayweather and Pacquaio in terms of the above points. I hope you accept the challenge. As I know Pacquaio and anyone faithfully representing him in his Entourage would never back off from a challenge that can be won. Plus, when we conceived the idea, almost everyone over here said this cat (you) would never be able to do it. But, not me. I have read all your posts for years and I know how magical you are, and how you could do anything you put that Academia mind to. So . . . MMPacQueenMMG over to you . . . . . Yes - you accept? Or No - tail between legs? No matter what I want you to know that it's been fun, and that in some ways I hope you will say "No"; so we can keep having all those side splitting "cherry juice blast to the 30K blood circulation cinnamon catch-weight extremities" laughs. Oh, one more thing, no matter what . . . . whether you run or take the challenge . . I still think you're cool.
Storm Social Avenger For MayPac Evenhandedness & Balance. Part-Time Freedom Fighter In Relation To; Freedom Of Speech, Da PacCultMovement, & The ProactivePacLossExcuseMakingMovement.


-stormcentre :


A chief maxim in boxing is that a great offense is a great defense. Whoop-arse offense indeed wins scraps. Not prevent and no indent. Money Team and Pops Joy May are full of syet with over emphasizing defense. A perfect storm is always reckless and a creator of havoc. Mass, severe HAVOC! Team Mayweather is trying to bullsyet talk its way into a win. And in boksing that is an unforgiving sin. You must fight a fight to get it right. Or you normally lose the night and the awarding of the fight. Holla!
[SIZE=6]Special Deal/Offer - Calling and CHALLENGING MMMMG. Hey Pinoy PowerPacQueenPack, Love ya work as always. In the true spirit of MayPac here's a challenge for you. If you can refrain from . . those claims you run from and/or wild, incredible, and untrue PacQueen and/or other claims (or disprove my assertion in that respect) . . . .
->http://www.thesweetscience.com/forums/showthread.php?20462-Tally-List-Of-Un-Substantiated-Posts&p=79438&viewfull=1#post79438 Then the friendly StormCentre will put his "MayPac Evenhandedness and Balance Social Avenger" responsibilities to one side for a while. Heck I may even put that Donkey Clown you love into the stables for a while.

Remember me? Behind the circus tent? As a token of my sincerity I will leave the above-bolded comment alone and not address it in terms of; 1) Only from the best defence does both a truly great offence and long/outstanding fighter, come. 2) Examples of how fighters over-reliant on offence have not always lasted long. 3) Examples of how fighters not over-reliant on offence and also possessing a great defence, have lasted long. 4) Analysis of Mayweather and Pacquaio in terms of the above points. I hope you accept the challenge. As I know Pacquaio and anyone faithfully representing him in his Entourage would never back off from a challenge that can be won. Plus, when we conceived the idea, almost everyone over here said this cat (you) would never be able to do it. But, not me. I have read all your posts for years and I know how magical you are, and how you could do anything you put that Academia mind to. So . . . MMPacQueenMMG over to you . . . . . Yes - you accept? Or No - tail between legs? No matter what I want you to know that it's been fun, and that in some ways I hope you will say "No"; so we can keep having all those side splitting "cherry juice blast to the 30K blood circulation cinnamon catch-weight extremities" laughs. Oh, one more thing, no matter what . . . . whether you run or take the challenge . . I still think you're cool.
Storm Social Avenger For MayPac Evenhandedness & Balance. Part-Time Freedom Fighter In Relation To; Freedom Of Speech, Da PacCultMovement, & The ProactivePacLossExcuseMakingMovement.


-stormcentre :

Wish Amayseng was here as (before he was sacked) he promoted my last challenge quite vigorously; although it was slightly without concern for some of the participants. :)


-stormcentre :

Wish Amayseng was here as (before he was sacked) he promoted my last challenge quite vigorously; although it was both without my permission and also slightly without concern for some of the participants. :) :) ;)


-HeNeverSawTheHookComing! :

It's funny to me, no one has yet to tell me how manny is going to get on the inside of Floyd's 5 in reach advantage? This is not a weight drained dela hoya, cotto, or a margocheato. This is a full fledge ww with superior boxing skills? Manny is an excellent offensive fighter, but he also has terrible defense (as does most Roach fighters) i.e. he is there to be hit! So what is going to happen when he makes those wild lunges in and Floyd is just tattooing MP with lead right hands? Those right hands Marquez landed weren't thrown by accident! Like in poker MP has tells (tendencies) that really exposes to those type of shots! Also I expect FM to do some body work on MP. I am predicting a 9th round stoppage for Floyd.


-HeNeverSawTheHookComing! :

[SIZE=6]Special Deal/Offer - Calling and CHALLENGING MMMMG. Hey Pinoy PowerPacQueenPack, Love ya work as always. In the true spirit of MayPac here's a challenge for you. If you can refrain from . . those claims you run from and/or wild, incredible, and untrue PacQueen and/or other claims (or disprove my assertion in that respect) . . . .
->http://www.thesweetscience.com/forums/showthread.php?20462-Tally-List-Of-Un-Substantiated-Posts&p=79438&viewfull=1#post79438 Then the friendly StormCentre will put his "MayPac Evenhandedness and Balance Social Avenger" responsibilities to one side for a while. Heck I may even put that Donkey Clown you love into the stables for a while.

Remember me? Behind the circus tent? As a token of my sincerity I will leave the above-bolded comment alone and not address it in terms of; 1) Only from the best defence does both a truly great offence and long/outstanding fighter, come. 2) Examples of how fighters over-reliant on offence have not always lasted long. 3) Examples of how fighters not over-reliant on offence and also possessing a great defence, have lasted long. 4) Analysis of Mayweather and Pacquaio in terms of the above points. I hope you accept the challenge. As I know Pacquaio and anyone faithfully representing him in his Entourage would never back off from a challenge that can be won. Plus, when we conceived the idea, almost everyone over here said this cat (you) would never be able to do it. But, not me. I have read all your posts for years and I know how magical you are, and how you could do anything you put that Academia mind to. So . . . MMPacQueenMMG over to you . . . . . Yes - you accept? Or No - tail between legs? No matter what I want you to know that it's been fun, and that in some ways I hope you will say "No"; so we can keep having all those side splitting "cherry juice blast to the 30K blood circulation cinnamon catch-weight extremities" laughs. Oh, one more thing, no matter what . . . . whether you run or take the challenge . . I still think you're cool.
Storm Social Avenger For MayPac Evenhandedness & Balance. Part-Time Freedom Fighter In Relation To; Freedom Of Speech, Da PacCultMovement, & The ProactivePacLossExcuseMakingMovement.
SC, as always great stuff.


-stormcentre :

SC, as always great stuff.
:)


-stormcentre :

It's funny to me, no one has yet to tell me how manny is going to get on the inside of Floyd's 5 in reach advantage? This is not a weight drained dela hoya, cotto, or a margocheato. This is a full fledge ww with superior boxing skills? Manny is an excellent offensive fighter, but he also has terrible defense (as does most Roach fighters) i.e. he is there to be hit! So what is going to happen when he makes those wild lunges in and Floyd is just tattooing MP with lead right hands? Those right hands Marquez landed weren't thrown by accident! Like in poker MP has tells (tendencies) that really exposes to those type of shots! Also I expect FM to do some body work on MP. I am predicting a 9th round stoppage for Floyd.
Hey HNSTHC, Fair post on your part. Yes, it is probably no accident that those considerations have been overlooked. Had they not been, it is more difficult to make a case for Pac. I mean Timothy Bradley (probably) resembles reasonably closely a Mayweather without the same defence, experience, and speed. And, whilst Pac probably beat Tim in the first fight, and did in the second; aside from the struggles Pac had and the fact he didn't stop Tim; it provides a pretty good and recent gauge of how much better Floyd can theoretically do than Tim. And from that we can theoretically consider what may happen. I haven't checked all these . . but I think the breakdown is as follows . . . 1) Floyd is as fast if not faster than Pac. 2) Floyd has a longer reach than Pac. 3) Floyd is bigger than Pac. 4) Floyd is not another welterweight or heavier divisional boxer made to starve down and fight at a catch-weight; like many of Pac's other opponents above light welterweight. 5) Floyd has better all round skills than Pac. 6) Floyd has an active defence and Pac doesn't. 7) Floyd is not as reckless as Pac when throwing; Pac is reckless to the point where it a liability he has shown an inability to adjust/compensate for, despite being hit for. 8) Floyd is undefeated. 9) Pac is not undefeated. 10) Floyd has never been knocked out. 11) Pac has been iced cold by Marquez. 12) Floyd easily defeated Marquez, but with a weight advantage. 13) Pac and Floyd have both been, at times, selective with their matchmaking; although the greater dislike for Floyd (compared to Manny) as a person often is too much for many PacQueens to bear, and this then becomes one reason why Floyd's matchmaking has possibly been more scrutinized. 14) Floyd can adjust, Pac is relatively unknown in this area. 15) Pac probably attacks with more ferocity, but rarely has he had to think about what he does with a guy that can both hurt him and match his speed. 16) Pac and his style is susceptible to counter punchers; which Floyd excels in. 17) Floyd and his style - particularly the shoulder roll if it is not adjusted - is reasonably susceptible to high intensity fighters and fast counter punchers; but only (in a truly meaningful sense) those that are southpaws. Pacquaio excels in high intensity fighting and fast lead/counter punchers. 18) Floyd and Pac both have associations (at whatever distance) to PEDs; although Pac's seem to be far more substantiated and understood in terms of the fabric of his wins when Ariza (and catch-weight fights for Pac's opponents were common) was in his camp; see TSS thread about Kenny Bayless being chosen as referee for
substantiation. 19) Pac successfully sued Floyd for PED related defamation (or the equivalent in the USA) when Ariza was not in Floyd's camp and before Arum and Roach effectively admitted Pac was juicing via Ariza; but Pac has not sued anyone that can prove the claim; see above point 18 and the referenced "Kenny Bayless" thread for
substantiation of this oft overlooked fact. 20) Almost all the common opponent guys that Pac has blown out better than Floyd were either fought by Pac at a catch-weight and/or after Floyd beat them; with almost all of these also having the cloud of Ariza and EPO over Pac's head. These connections are as unpopular as they are overlooked, particularly by PacQueens. 21) Pac - after an incredible run - has not KO'd anyone since Ariza left his camp. But he did drop Algeiri (a concerning matchup but nonetheless one after Pac was iced by Marquez) a lot. 22) Ariza has been involved in both fights and fighter's camps that were also both, opponents of Floyd's and fights that represented some of Floyd's messier and tougher fights of his "Money May" (not "Pretty Boy") career; Maidana was assisted by Ariza. These considerations and connections are as unpopular as they are overlooked, particularly by PacQueens. 23) Ariza (prior to being removed from Garcia's gym) was also captured on video providing Brandon Rios with a (seemingly illegal) substance in between rounds of his fight against Pacquaio, whom, at the time, was coming back after his KO loss to Marquez. Whilst Pac had already been fighting at welterweight for some time (easily more than 3, possibly 4 years) Rios had not fought as a welterweight previously. Nonetheless, Rios is the kind of typically tough, exciting, durable, relatively slow, and without a sophisticated defence, kind of opponent that Manny would normally KO. But the fight went to a decision win for Pac over 12 rounds; despite Pac having; big fight, hand/foot speed, intensity, and also familiarity with welterweight, advantages. These considerations and connections are as unpopular as they are overlooked, particularly by PacQueens. 24)
WildCard and unpopular (but analytically important) consideration: How will Pac perform at this level, with the above considerations (1, 2, 4, 6, 11, 16 & 18), and without Ariza? 24)
WildCard and unpopular (but analytically important) consideration: How will Floyd perform at this level, with the above considerations (including point 15), with Ariza?
Flurries A case - depending on what style of fighting you not only like but also understand - could also be made for Floyd performing better than Pac in their Shane Mosley fights. Regardless of that, the Floyd V Mosley fight dispels any myths about Floyd not being cleverly aggressive; as does his fight with Canelo. Almost all the common opponents between Floyd and Pacquaio back Floyd to win, with those whom are "sitting on the fence" being opponents that Pac beat more convincingly; but Pac did this whilst some were at the end of their road (Oscar), whilst all were fought with a catch-weight advantage (for Pac), and also whilst Ariza was in Pac's camp. Cheers,
Storm.
Social Avenger For MayPac Evenhandedness & Balance. Part-Time Freedom Fighter In Relation To; Freedom Of Speech, Da PacCultMovement, & The ProactivePacLossExcuseMakingMovement.


-Radam G :

It's funny to me, no one has yet to tell me how manny is going to get on the inside of Floyd's 5 in reach advantage? This is not a weight drained dela hoya, cotto, or a margocheato. This is a full fledge ww with superior boxing skills? Manny is an excellent offensive fighter, but he also has terrible defense (as does most Roach fighters) i.e. he is there to be hit! So what is going to happen when he makes those wild lunges in and Floyd is just tattooing MP with lead right hands? Those right hands Marquez landed weren't thrown by accident! Like in poker MP has tells (tendencies) that really exposes to those type of shots! Also I expect FM to do some body work on MP. I am predicting a 9th round stoppage for Floyd.
That reach is misleading. And is for promotion. From the armpits to the end of the fist. Da Manny and Money May reach is a half inch apart. A lot of pugs have wide shoulders but short-arse arms. And a lot of pugs have long arms on closed-in shoulders. Money May has no size advantages but mythology. Da Manny is going to bend Money May over in the body and smack da hebejeebeez out of upside da cranium. Holla!


-HeNeverSawTheHookComing! :

That reach is misleading. And is for promotion. From the armpits to the end of the fist. Da Manny and Money May reach is a half inch apart. A lot of pugs have wide shoulders but short-arse arms. And a lot of pugs have long arms on closed-in shoulders. Money May has no size advantages but mythology. Da Manny is going to bend Money May over in the body and smack da hebejeebeez out of upside da cranium. Holla!
Really! Only 2 days away. I sure hope cat's don't go into hiding.


-Radam G :

A day and a wake up! Maybe cat's, wuzzy weasels, d??khead donkies, and lying, sh*t-talking squirrels go into hiding, but tigers won't and don't. Holla!


-HeNeverSawTheHookComing! :

We shall see!!!