Floyd Mayweather Will Reach His Limit Fighting Canelo Alvarez

MayweatherPrepares4Cotto Hoganphotos4I’ll be that guy, the one that picks Canelo Alvarez over Floyd Mayweather.

Alvarez will shock the world this September and defeat Mayweather by unanimous decision. In doing so, Alvarez will become the lineal junior middleweight champion of the world according to the keeper of such things, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.

Perhaps more importantly though, Alvarez will become boxing’s next generation superstar, eclipsing current high demand kingpin Mayweather as well as historical giant, the Golden Boy himself, Oscar De La Hoya.

The coronation will begin promptly after the fight. Do not be late. The king is dead. Long live the king. King Canelo, that is.

Look, Floyd Mayweather is a great fighter. Easily, the gifted boxer will go down in history as one of the best pugilists of his (or any) era. And while some have been critical of his long layoffs and opponent selection (especially during his prime years) there’s no doubt he’s one of the few fighters in boxing history that will be remembered long after leaving this earth.

Joyce Carol Oates likened boxing’s obsession with the past and its veneration of certain participants to that of Christianity and its Saints. Such a saint will Mayweather be for future boxing fans: long-loved, admired and more appreciated than he was while among us mere mortals.

It will be in part because he accepted such a stern test at age 36.

Canelo will be 23 years old when the two face-off this September. He’s practically a giant compared to Mayweather, who at the very same age carried the fighting weight of 130 pounds. Moreover, Canelo has proven to be multi-faceted in his repertoire. Against smaller and weaker men he can just physically bully, such as Josesito Lopez, Alvarez goes in fast for the kill. When he’s hunting more dangerous game, bigger, stronger or just technically skilled, Alvarez has shown he can box proficiently from a distance with real power. Look no further than his win over Austin Trout in April for an example.

He’ll need both against the best boxer in the sport. Canelo will have to be patient in the beginning. He’d be wise to encourage Mayweather (a preferred counterpuncher) to lead from the outside so Alvarez can throw straight counters to his chin. He’ll miss often in the early going but not always, and when he does connect, Mayweather will feel it. That’s when he’ll become the bully. Alvarez will charge hard and hit Mayweather wherever he can. Head, side, chin, arm—it does not matter. This will put Mayweather in a cautious and defensive position, and that’s right where Canelo wants him.

You see Mayweather is the boxing’s best risk manager. It’s one of his greatest assets, and it’s helped keep him undefeated. But like Manny Pacquiao’s reckless aggression was the author of his demise, so too will Mayweather’s risk-minded approach end up being the author of his. Case in point: in the twelfth round of his 2012 win over Miguel Cotto, Mayweather caught the tough Puerto Rican flush to the chin right in the center of the ring. Cotto stumbled and was legitimately hurt. What did Mayweather do? Did he rush after him? Did he try and follow up with a combination? Did he continue his offensive assault in any way? No, Mayweather was content to go the distance. He was reasonably assured he had the fight in the bag, so he took it to the scorecards. It’s what he does.

Managing risk has its rewards. He won the fight against Cotto, and he absolutely deserved it. So too has he won all previous bouts, though some might argue he at least lost one of his two fights against Jose Luis Castillo. Regardless, what is bound to happen eventually is for the approach to have a negative effect someday, especially as he grows older and slower while continuing to fight at higher weight classes.

Expect it to come to roost against Canelo Alvarez. Mayweather will feel the power of the true junior middleweight (something he’s never really felt before) early, and it will put him on the defensive. Canelo will rack up the rounds because Mayweather will be content to try and potshot Alvarez as carefully as possible.

Mayweather will have his moments, of course. He’s a true great. He’ll fight bravely and with great precision and accuracy. He’ll show why he’s been on top all these years. The fight will be very close.

But every fighter loses (or they should anyways) and Floyd Mayweather will lose to Canelo Alvarez on this day. Alvarez will assume the throne that will be his to lose for the foreseeable future. And Mayweather will take one more step towards boxing sainthood because he’ll have finally done what we demand all our great saints do: discover their limits.

Floyd Mayweather’s limit will be fighting Canelo Alvarez at 152 pounds.

Send Kelsey your prediction on twitter @KelseyMcCarson.

Comment on this article


amayseng :

I don't agree with Canelo being a giant compared to Floyd. They are about the same height and Floyd will most likely have a reach advantage as usual. His arms are alien like long. Floyd will move and pot shot his way to a clear victory. The only chance Canelo has is the first 3 rounds try to catch Floyd and buzz him and get him out f there before he gets his groove. In the ghost fright Floyd's legs and footwork was all over the place the first two rounds. Floyd's gift is his stamina so he will always have that advantage especially against Canelo who gasses terribly at 154 and will worse at 152.

michaelabii :

I like the fact that this article bucks the trend and picks Alvarez as the winner. Canelos a very good fighter and appears to do everything well. But, thats the point however. He does not look like a great fighter. At least not yet. Austin Trout was his most serious competition to date and Canelo eked out a win and looked vulnerable at times. I think this 'looks' like a great fight on paper at least but in reality Mayweather is vastly more skilled than Canelo. I will go as far as to say that if Mayweather chooses he can stop Canelo in the late rounds. The fight will 'look' close in the early rounds much like the Ricky Hatton fight but I see Canelo getting picked apart late in the fight and maybe quitting or having a towel thrown on his behalf.

Spinach Chin :

Agree with above post. Canelo cannot beat Mayweather throwing 30 punches a round. I think Canelo is the real deal but his punch output was alarming against Trout, who I had edging Canelo.

amayseng :

Floyd wins clearly but he isn't stopping Canelo. Come on now.

Radam G :

Wow! Pugilistic ScribeKelseyMcC is coming straight-out hardcore. I can respect that. But his seeing of Canelo beating Money May is a dream that will not see the reality of a figment of anybody's imagination. Canelo is in for a nightmare. Fighting Money May is something that the red-headed hype will not dare. Dude is already FRIED. Even his big brother is hallucinating that Money May is scared shytless of Canelo. Trust me! When the bell ring, Canelo will go into survival mode. His is going to try to become a-going-the-distance- warrior, but Money May is going to KAYO his arse. THAT'S RIGHT! I'm calling this fiasco a Money May KAYO! NEWFLASH: Money May is scared -- NOT! And Canelo, he is going to POTSHOT! I'm predicting Canelo's arse, Money May is going to STOP! For the red-headed hype, Money May has too much game and snap, crackle, POP! WOW! OMFG! Money May's every opponent suppose to demolish him coming into the bout, but they [sic] go out with an arse thrashing. Canelo is going to get an arse trashing. Besides he is chubby, and probably should be fighting at 140lbs. The only big that Canelo has, is that he's bigger and than Money May is in body fat. And, of course, hype. Canelo will not be much of a challenge for Money May, and will be put to sleep by round eight. He is going to make Money May look super great. Holla!

Carmine Cas :

Easy work for Merriweahter but we shall see, this is the theater of the unexpected.

amayseng :

Radam I don't see Floyd taking that chance unless, and only unless, Canelo is so drained he is a walking mummy for The late rounds. In which case it will be detrimental to his legacy that 152 was too hard on Canelo. He'd be better off with a tough Canelo but clear cut victory.

Radam G :

The hype is going to be scare as heck. He will take chances and get caught, and caught and caught. Easy work for Money May. And, YES, 152lbs will make a difference. The fat-arse has been eating too much. And cannot properly get those fat cells to reduce. He is in TROUBLE. Holla!

Radam G :

Carrying a nation will also be too much for Canelo. He would have a better chance if he were fighting for himself. But he is fighting for Mexico and Mexican pride. Money May is fighting for MONEY, and for MONEY, and for some more MONEY. Money is his motivation. Winning for Mexico is Canelo's motivation. And the burden will be too heavy, especially with Money May knocking the snot out of him, and his not finding Money May. Money May will be plugging and Canelo will be air slugging. I predict Money May's punch accuracy to be a whopping 70 percent, while the red-headed hype's percentage will be about 10 or 15, if not a TOTAL ZERO! This will not be a good fight for Canelo or Money May-haters. Holla!

Carmine Cas :

Canelo better be dropping weight now, getting used to fighting and walking around a lighter weight

Carmine Cas :

I don't agree with Canelo being a giant compared to Floyd. They are about the same height and Floyd will most likely have a reach advantage as usual. His arms are alien like long. Floyd will move and pot shot his way to a clear victory. The only chance Canelo has is the first 3 rounds try to catch Floyd and buzz him and get him out f there before he gets his groove. In the ghost fright Floyd's legs and footwork was all over the place the first two rounds. Floyd's gift is his stamina so he will always have that advantage especially against Canelo who gasses terribly at 154 and will worse at 152.
In the ghost fright lol nice, honestly Canelo has to be at tip top shape. That goes without saying, and go to the body of mayweather early as possible. In the trout fight he showed that he can jab and feint his way in the inside. And of course as I've stated numerous times in the past he needs to utilize that jab the whole night

amayseng :

I agree Canelo should already be running 7 miles a day on a perfectly clean diet. Not over train but drop that excess weight and baby fat and lean out before training camp gets down to business

vjoe :

Canelo didn't blow me away against Trout, but maybe he would have fought a little differently if there hadn't been open scoring. Cotto had some success against Floyd, but didn't have enough gas in the tank. Same for Ortiz, imo (but also had some head issues). Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Canelo is much better than either of those guys. I can definitely see him getting gassed in the later rounds and taken apart, but I can also see him jumping on PBF early and having success. To me, that's why this is an interesting fight.

Radam G :

Canelo jumps on Money May early, and he will get put to sleep early. Holla!

stormcentre :

Hmm interesting comments here. I agree mostly with RG; Canelo hasn't got the repertoire/skills to seriously bother Mayweather. Floyd has dealt with guys that have the "so called" power advantage before. Plus, the weight loss – even if it weren't combined with the pressure of the nation – will matter to Saul; particularly in the late rounds when he has confirmed to himself that he can’t deal with the speed and thinking of Mayweather. Furthermore, Canelo’s footwork is a little limited for a guy like Floyd, who has defense, angles and options. Add to that Canelo leaves himself open an awful lot too - even when he’s not committing heavily to punches – and this shows mostly when he overreaches; a consideration Floyd and his team will pick up. I see Canelo getting (not seriously hurt but) smacked up a bit in this one. What will he do (not if) when he can’t get his jab off?