LOTIERZO: Guerrero Isn’t Skilled Enough To Beat Floyd

Well, here we are approaching the first Saturday of May and for the fourth time in seven years boxing’s pound-for-pound best fighter, welterweight Floyd Mayweather 43-0 (26), will be center stage again. His opponent, Robert Guerrero 31-1-1 (18), who has only fought two times as a welterweight, will hopefully provide Mayweather enough of a challenge that maybe the outcome will still be in question after the first round is over. In some boxing circles Mayweather is almost an 8-1 favorite–the biggest he’s ever been–yet the fight will most likely do a decent PPV number because Floyd is one of the best ever at hyping and selling a one-sided fight in which he is a participant.

This time his father Floyd Sr. and Guerrero’s father Ruben have injected a new angle and said they’d like to meet on the street and settle their differences, something Floyd Jr. has encouraged his father to ignore. Obviously, that was most likely just hype and ballyhoo to help build the fight. However, Mayweather Sr. was seen hitting a heavy bag recently and there’s no doubt based on that observation that he can still punch. In fact he was a much better puncher during his prime than his son ever was, he just wasn’t quite as complete a fighter that his son turned out to be.

In the run up to this fight, especially in the last 7-10 days, many have tried to make a case for Guerrero and imply that Floyd is vulnerable to being upset, or at the least he’s in for a competitive fight. To that I say, No way. What you have in Mayweather-Guerrero is a great fighter, Mayweather, who even at 36 hasn’t really shown any signs of serious erosion. In the other corner, the 30 year old Guerrero is a workman-like borderline outstanding fighter. The problem is great fighters when they’re still near the top of their game seldom lose to outstanding fighters who really made their mark fighting 20 pounds lighter than the weight they are currently campaigning at, which applies to Guerrero who spent the first eight or so years of his career as a featherweight.

If Mayweather is going to slip up due to his age, I doubt it’ll be against Robert Guerrero, who is a very tough and aggressive fighter and will no doubt bring his A-game on May 4, 2013. See, Guerrero is in a Catch-22 predicament. He has no chance to beat Mayweather by trying to out-box him or force him to lead. Granted, Floyd usually doesn’t lead but because of his straight punching and quickness, he could best Guerrero fighting as the attacker.

On the other hand Guerrero doesn’t possess a big enough punch or the physicality to deliver it even if he did have one-punch fight-altering power. If he’s too aggressive he’ll no doubt get hit a lot on the way in, which will impede his aggression and make him that easier for Floyd to time and pot shot. When was the last time Mayweather faced an opponent where it could be said that he is bigger, stronger and faster? In addition to that he’s the bigger puncher, harder to hit, more accurate, better defensively, has the higher boxing IQ, is more comfortable at the weight and has much more experience in big fights. And lastly, Floyd has the perfect height, reach and length to pick Robert apart regardless if they’re waging war inside or outside.

For arguments sake, say you are guiding Guerrero and in charge of his fight strategy, what exactly would you hang your hat on and try to exploit on Mayweather? The reality is Robert has not tool one to beat Floyd with other than his grit and the hope that Floyd has aged 10 years since his last fight against Miguel Cotto. It’s been three years since Guerrero has won a fight by stoppage and that was as a lightweight. Couple that with the fact that he’s probably not going to land many clean shots on Floyd and if that weren’t enough, how about Floyd also has shown that he has a dependable chin. It’s highly doubtful that Guerrero can win via stoppage. With winning by a knockout virtually out of the question, is it really plausible to think he can out work or out box Mayweather by trying to beat him at the wait and react game? No, it is not. With that said, where is the intrigue regarding the outcome of this fight?

Since there’s really no foreseeable drama as to the outcome of Mayweather-Guerrero, I’m looking forward to seeing if Roberto Guerrero, who truly deserves this opportunity, can at least push Mayweather and give him a good scare. That in itself would almost be worth what it’ll cost to see the fight if you’re not seeing it in person. Because when all is said and done, Robert just isn’t big or skilled enough to score the upset and hand Mayweather his first official loss. However, a good showing will set Guerrero up for another big fight and payday, and he has earned that as much as any fighter currently competing in a combat sport.

As for Mayweather, he’ll be humble after the fight and praise Guerrero, then go on about how he’s the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in boxing history. This despite the fact that he’ll be best remembered for never giving the boxing public and fans the only fight they ever wanted from him when the outcome was in doubt.



-Radam G :

In a nutshell, the Cali Chost has to give Money May hell. But in this piece of Superscribe F-Lo: "Guerrero isn't skilled enough to beat [Lil'] Floyd," or give him hell. Money May is gonna beat dat arse until the Ghost Dad, the son and all the holy humbugs bytch yell. Lil' Floyd is not an imaginary devil all up in your business. He's a real-life human in da hurt bitnezz of whuppin' @$$. To beat him, not in a single prayer is there enough holy gas. Mano-i-mano! I wouldn't be surprised if Lil' Floyd gets a BIG-TIME kayo! Holla!

-vjoe :

If PBF is half as good as he claims, he should stop Guerro inside of six rounds. Vamos a ver.

-SouthPaul :

Frank gets it. Good read. My sentiments from the moment the fight was signed .

-deepwater :

First thing is first ,this writer is the best on here. He makes very good predictions and I agree with alot of his breakdowns. skills do pay the bills but boxing has some nice chances for upsets. sometimes heart,determination, a -b-c- game plans and just some luck can overcome skills. Floyd is heavy fav and rightfully so but if it was a forgone conclusion why even watch the fight. If Guerrero does not come forward he can win the fight. Floyd even says it himself. every guy thinks pressure and throwing massive punches will work. it wont. Floyd s style and game plan is centered on that. if Guerrero does not come forward he has a shot.

-deepwater :

I vote for Lotierzo as writer of the year

-Real Talk :

The Ghost has heart and skills but Money May has the total package and a renewed hunger for greatness. He's rekindles the flame and approaches game with legacy on his brain, endured the blood, sweat and tears through the fire and rain and like Method Man is coming to bring the pain, it's not a game, skill level is insane. The Ghost will need to become a super Sayain to maintain. Dueces I'm vapors like *poofis*

-Radam G :

WELL! All right, Real Talk! Nice! So that I had to read it twice! Hehe! Holla!

-amayseng :

The ghost has lost significant foot speed and agility and it will be his undoing. He came up two classes too quickly

-brownsugar :

As much as I respect Flo Lo's prefight analysis, There are some blatant inconsistencies with this article. Both Ortiz and Mosley came into the fight weighing in the middleweight range... and both were known as KO artists with a high KO percentage. If I wasted the time to go to boxing rec, I could easily detail a nice list of fighters who were bigger hitters and physically larger. It has be noted too that Guerrero didn't just jump up to 147 overnight (like Pac did) . and his transition to the welterweight division has been far more natural without all the catchweight clauses and rehydration restaints. after dominating early in his career at lighter weights, Robert had roughly 2 years off to fill in his frame with the bone and muscle tissue to be competitive in the welterweight division. Punching power... Guerrero has great torque with his left hand,.. can fire it with authority even while clinging to his opponent MMA style. and usually always thows to or three punches every time while variating the straight left into an uppercut or a hook on the inside. Guerrero rocked both of the top ranking welters he fought so Mayweather will have to be careful no to be on the receiving end of too may left hands,.. one look at Bertos face is evident he wasn't in the ring against a creampuff-Malignaggi-like puncher. On the night of the fight, Floyd,... who weighed in today at 146 will not exceed 148 -150 lbs... on the other hand Guerrero will weight-in between 158-160. he will be a completely solid and condensed vessel of muscle, bone, and determination. We will never really know how much floyd has left until the day of the fight. But coming in at 146 shows the amount of respect Mayweather has Guerrero's chances.. Floyd is obviously preparing for ever possible contingency but the question is? "how much of his youthful athleticsm can Floyd retrieve from his glory days". if he's flat and listless like he was for Cotto,.. (even though he displayed a nice 6 pack) This could be Guerrero's night.

-ali :

Skills pay the bills 95% of the time in my opinion and if that's true Guerrero has 5% chance of winning.

-jzzy :

This is a thoroughbread vs a plow horse. Mayweather is ready to shine in this fight. Guerrero has to take the fight to Floyd and he will continually walk into counter shots.

-DaveB :

This article makes good sense. I asked an older guy I know how does he feel about Mayweather's chances? He said I think he will be alright because he knows how to pick the guys he can handle. A few weeks ago I was thinking Guerrero may have a shot. But I had to think about what was changing my opinion of how I had previously thought of him? I've always respected Guerrero but I always thought he was just okay. There was nothing that really impressed me about him. Then after the Berto fight his stock in my mind went up. Up a lot. But why? The Berto fight was a fight I really didn't expect him to win. He fought really tough and he had a will that couldn't be broken, at least by Berto on that night. I was really impressed. But upon examining my own thinking I came to two conclusions - The first was that Berto with some adjustments could have won that fight IMO but Berto didn't make any adjustments. He just came out the same round after round and took a beating for his lack of effort. I give Guerrero credit too. The other thought was Berto is only a C+ or at best a B- fighter. He is not in the same galaxy as Mayweather and this fight based upon the Berto fight has nothing to give it any credibility. However this fight will be a measuring stick to see if Mayweather has slipped due to age. Against Cotto, a fighter on the down side, Mayweather although he won the fight handily let's say 8 rounds to 4, caught quite a bit more trouble than anyone expected. It has been a year since that fight, how much will that year off have to do with the outcome tonight? I know what Guerrero brings. He wants to fight on the inside and be there all night long banging and hurting Floyd. He has damaging if not concussive power. This fight has more to do with assessing Floyd's slippage or not. Against Berto Mayweather would not have any problems. Against Guerrero he should win but I feel that with Guerrero's will of coming and coming it will answer some questions I have about Floyd. If he passes the test with flying colors no one else is close to beating him right now but if he doesn't do very well the window of being "unbeaten" is starting to close. I have to ask when does his age start to signal his demise? When will he have to change his game and become a Hopkins like fighter and win ugly? All old fighters start with the excuse of I should have done some different things in there my last fight and tonight will be different. After awhile every fight just gets worse than the one before. We'll know more after watching the fight tonight.

-leon30001 :

Agreed frank knows boxing, it's patently clear. Floyd took this as he knows he'll win, we all know that. He'll continue to do so. I'll still watch though!