There are those that think Junior has a strength edge against Martinez, and will spring the upset. Not the writer; he thinks the kid needs more seasoning, and has no shot.
When they first announced the dueling fight cards, I saw a wonderful opportunity and sprung into action. I know a guy who knows a guy, so I made a phone call.
Me: I need you to do me a favor.
Voice: I'm listening.
Me: I'd like to bet a parlay.
Voice: I'm still listening.
Me: I want to bet that neither main event happens come September 15th.
Me: I don't think either fight will happen on…
Voice: No, I heard you the first time.
Me: I just assumed you could get me considerable odds on both fights not happening.
That's a true story.
Here was my logic regarding Canelo vs. Lopez. Oscar walks into the offices at Golden Boy Corporate, spots Richard Schaefer, and inquires as to how the fight tickets are selling.
Oscar: Richard, how many have we moved so far?
Richard: Eh, hello, Oscar. Um… eight.
Oscar: Wow, eight thousand, not bad.
Richard: No, Oscar, eight… the number that comes right after seven.
That's it, fight cancelled, I'm halfway home.
For the second part of the parlay, I knew I'd probably have to wait until the weigh-in for Chavez Jr. vs Martinez.
Jimmy Lennon: The challenger (don't get me started), Sergio “Maravilla” Martinez weighs in at 157 ¼ pounds. Next up on the scale, WBC Middleweight Champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. weighs in at…
First Indistinctive Voice: Move the bar.
Second Indistinctive Voice: I did.
First Voice: Move it some more.
Second Voice: It won't go any farther.
Lennon (sounding perplexed): Well, what does he weigh?
First Voice: He doesn't weigh anything. I mean, he weighs something, but the scale evidently doesn't go that high.
Second Voice: Um, we don't know. He's heavier than what the scale goes up to.
Lennon (into microphone): Okay, there's going to be a brief intermission.
Keith Kizer: Julio, you have 2 hours to make weight.
Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.: Nope. I'm not losing any weight.
Keith Kizer: Sergio, Julio refuses to attempt to make weight. If you fight him, you're entitled to 45% of his purse and only you can win the title.
Sergio Martinez: What did he weigh?
Keith Kizer: Well, he was a little heavy.
Sergio: What's a little?
Keith Kizer: I'm thinking of a number between 250 and 300.
Sergio: Is that his weight, or the differential?
Keith Kizer: Sergio, really, does it matter?
Sergio: You're right, I'll take it.
Me: Nooooooooo! Don't take the fight Sergio! #$%! Why, Sergio, why?!?!
Here's my logic. I really didn't feel that Canelo could draw well against such a smaller opponent. I thought this would be similar to the Tyson fight that was cancelled when they were going head to head with the Holyfield-Bowe fight at Caesars. I just figured cooler heads would prevail at Golden Boy, but evidently not.
In regard to Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez, this is not a fight Team Chavez wants now. The Chavez camp would need a way to save face, thus Chavez not making weight would be the easy way out. If you can't make weight, you can't make weight.
I like Chavez Jr. And he is improving. And although a year ago I said that we needed to give him a year, now a year removed I find myself still saying the same thing. He's insanely overrated. Because of my understanding of match-ups, I felt Sergio was a 320 favorite over the young Chavez. So you can imagine my surprise when I read Martinez opened at -160. I thought maybe they dropped a zero.
I began to second guess myself (silly me). So then I did what I always do when I need to confirm my findings. I checked my notebook, and I came across the page entitled: Things that, by themselves, can't fight. Listed are some of the following: mean scowls, tattoos, insults to your heritage, body piercings, pink underwear, legendary dads who won 107 professional fights 17 years ago, etc. And several pages over is the page entitled: Things that can fight. Listed are some the following: fleet of foot (lateral movement), punches delivered from unorthodox angles, fighters with a chip on their shoulders the size of Argentina, etc.
In conclusion, I give Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. no chance to win. Martinez “Dempseys” Chavez, Jr. I'll just say that I saw it coming. I was very surprised that Jr. made weight. I'll be the second most surprised guy in Nevada, if he wins… right after Sergio.