Making sense in a wager when betting on a fighter that is a -800 favorite is a near impossibility. This Saturday on HBO, however, that is exactly the case, well, sort of.

The bet already made is on the Exact Outcome of the IBF Middleweight Eliminator bout on HBO as former 154-pound king Ronald “Winky” Wright continues his career at 160-pounds when he takes on Australian contender Sam “King” Soliman. While Wright is a heavy -800 betting favorite, there is still value to be had in backing ‘Wright By Decision’ -215.

Southpaw Ronald Wright (49-3, 25 KOs) had been toiling his fistic trade at the junior middleweight limit where he owned nearly every belt there was to be had. A former IBF, WBC, WBA, WBO, NABF, and USBA champion at 154-pounds, he is as slippery a fighter as there is. Winky recently took two decision victories against quick-fisted “Sugar” Shane Mosley as Mosley found out just how difficult it is to catch Wright clean.

“Winky” made his middleweight debut a highly successful one as he practically shutout comebacking Felix “Tito” Trinidad – who, shortly after the fight, decided he didn’t want to come back any more. That bout was officially a WBC eliminator for the right to face champion Jermain Taylor. A more lucrative bout for Taylor came about as he recently met Bernard Hopkins in a rematch, so “Winky” Wright took the IBF eliminator against Soliman.

Sam Soliman, 37-7 (12 KOs) is not as well known as the Trinidad, Mosley and Vargas types that Wright has faced, but he does stand in the way of Wright becoming a middleweight champion. “King” Soliman has seven defeats on his resume but most of those losses did come against some of the better fighters at middleweight. Currently on a 19-fight winning streak, he has never been stopped despite having faced guys like Howard Eastman, Anthony Mundine, Glen Kelly and awkward Raymond Joval. If a heavy hitting natural middleweight like “The Battersea Bomber” Eastman (40-3-0, 34 KOs) couldn’t stop Soliman, then I seriously doubt that Wright will be the first to pull off the trick.

With the likelihood of “Winky” stopping a seasoned middleweight like Soliman all but removed, it comes apparent that the play on ‘Wright By Decision’ -215 (risking $215 to profit $100) is a wise choice. Clearly the Washington, DC-born Wright is the heavy favorite to win this fight for good reason. He outboxed both Trinidad and Mosley and should be too slick for Soliman. Soliman doesn’t have much power at all, evidenced by his 12 stoppage among 37 wins, and the chances of the Aussie outboxing a fighter of the class that Ronald Lamont Wright is, well, let’s just say it isn’t very probable.

Oddsmakers have set Wright as a whopping -800 favorite to win the fight and the Total Rounds betting is 11.5 Rounds, with the Over -300 and the Under +250. Eleven-and-a-half rounds translates to 11 completed rounds plus 1 minute 30 seconds of the twelfth round. “Winky” is a huge favorite to win the fight on Saturday and the Over is a heavy favorite to come in as well. 11.5 Rounds is a mere 1:30 short of the fight going to the scorecards, and it looks like the people who set the lines have it right with Wright the heavy choice. They are suggesting that the outcome of this bout will the Ronald “Winky” Wright by Decision, and I definitely agree.

The official play is ‘Wright By Decision’ -215.

The first step in making a smart wager is to accurately determine the most probable outcome, and then make your wager at the best possible price available. Remember to shop around for value and always bet with your head, not above it.

(For entertainment purposes only.)