To bet or not to bet, that is the question you, critics, writers and every fan have been asking themselves since the line on the fight was made.
What did you do to determine who should win? And more importantly, is there any value in the wager? I know some did more than others; viewed one or both fighters’ last few fights, compared fighters’ records, read articles from several writers, stayed up late and watched espn boxing coverage, etc. However it may be, you have formulated an opinion and given a value to each fighter and to possible other aspects of the fight as well.
We do this for every major fight or small club show we see; because the days of rooting for the guy because he’s from your country, or he’s from your hometown, or he’s your brother are gone. You may want your brother to win, but deep down and without letting anyone else know; you see great value in the other guy.
Which leads me to this: if brother Vladimir can't see value in Lennox by KO at -200 (over Vitali), then he should never consider becoming a handicapper. The line on the fight is now a whopping -525 for the champ and the come back is +425 on the dog. On this line alone, I see no real “value”.
Lennox will win, but to lay that price is difficult even when I know I'm right. So let’s go look at other possibilities as they enter the ring. How long will it last? The total round wager is 7½*, under is -125 and to go over you get +105. Our other options are exact outcome, let’s go over them. Let’s look first at what’s offered that will most definitely not happen: Klitschko by KO +520 or Klitschko by DEC +920.
Then we have real possibilities to look over: Lennox by DEC +240, Lennox by KO -280. (The draw is +1800.)
By now we have done our research on both fighters and we have to consider what the actual lines are and where the real value lies. Can't decide? Well, that’s what I'm here for. I already told you that I see no real value in laying such a big number (-525) on the champ, even though he cannot lose this fight. So what to look at next? One, we are fighting Vitali, the lesser of the two Ukrainian brothers. Two, let’s look at better brother Vladimir’s last performance in his hometown in front of family and friends; he was dismantled in two rounds by Corrie Sanders. Now, while I do respect the South African's talents, he is by no means a Lennox Lewis.
So on that note, take your hard earned money and bet the Lennox By KO -280. Go get it now before it climbs any higher.
Looking at Vitali’s record, six of his last seven fights went ten or more rounds, including a loss to Chris Byrd by a tenth round TKO. However, some of you may feel that if Vladimir can only go two with Corrie, then how will lesser brother Vitali get further than one with Lennox. I don’t think the fight will go over the 7½ rounds so I bet that as well, just not as large as Lennox by KO. Also keep in mind that 31 year old Vitali was ringside when his younger brother was batted from one corner of the ring to the other by Corrie Sanders; so I believe running will be a large part of this Ukrainian’s defense, although you will find lateral movement is not one of his strong suits.
So, now bets have been placed, beers have been opened, the referee signals the time keeper, the bell sounds, and both fighters come out. It begins…and we root accordingly.
*7½ rounds: the fight must go a full seven rounds and 1 min and 31 seconds into the eighth to be considered over